Signs of Status Quo Change in S.Ossetia

Civil.ge

With the Western powers' overwhelming condemnation of the South Ossetia secessionist polls, Moscow has stopped short of recognizing them by saying that the independence referendum in breakaway region was an expression of free will by the South Ossetian people through "democratic procedures."

"Regardless of Tbilisi's and some Western countries' attempts to downplay the importance of this event, it is still of a significant nature. It would be short-sighted not to at least take it into consideration," the Russian Foreign Ministry said on November 13.

Some analysts in Tbilisi say that Moscow is refraining from direct recognition but will definitely use the referendum as a tool to pursue its policy of applying a "universal approach" applying a "Kosovo precedent" - to conflicts in the post-Soviet space.

The setting up of a so-called "alternative government" loyal to Tbilisi, to be led by Dimitri Sanakoev, is seen as a countermeasure by the Georgian authorities.

The Tbilisi-loyal South Ossetian government will most likely be used as a tool to argue that there is "a different voice" in South Ossetian society whose position should also be taken into consideration in the conflict resolution process.

This policy is a clear attempt to unilaterally change the current status quo in the conflict zone, which is expected to give Tbilisi the upper-hand in its demands to change the existing quadripartite negotiating format, involving the Georgian, South Ossetian, Russian and Russia's North Ossetian sides. Georgian officials say this format is "outdated and ineffective."

Sensing that Tbilisi may gain the upper-hand in this diplomatic standoff over South Ossetia, Moscow has already condemned the "alternative government" of South Ossetia. The Russian Foreign Ministry warned on November 10 that the attempt to create such a body may lead to a military confrontation. And in a separate statement on November 13, it added that the alternative polls were organized by a group of "adventurers" who were trying to foil the Tskhinvali-organized "fair" elections.

It is not yet clear how or if Tbilisi will formalize its currently informal ties with "the alternative authorities." Issues related to funding also remain unclear.

Some unofficial reports indicate that the headquarters of "the alternative government" wi