Upcoming Ukrainian Parliamentary Elections

1. Do Our Ukraine and BYUT make friends?
Ukrayinska Pravda
January 31, 2006

The first meeting of representatives of Our Ukraine bloc and Yuliya Tymoshenko’s bloc took place on Monday.

“Oleksandr Turchynov and Mykola Tomenko presented BYUT’s variant of the agreement”, said Tymoshenko’s press-secretary Vitaliy Chepinoga to Ukrayinska Pravda.

According to him, Roman Zvarych and Roman Bezsmertnyi will represent Our Ukraine bloc at the meeting.

Chepinoga outlined the parties debated whether to coalize before or after the parliamentary elections.

“We adhere to the position that teams shoud coalize and destribute posts after elections, we have to sign the declaration on association of the orange forces for now ”, added Chepinoga.

As known, Our Ukraine party proposed pro-government election members to conclude a coalition agreement that foresaw to distribute the posts in the government, parliament’s leadership and the local authorities.

2. Yanukovych promises problems for Lutsenko and socialists
Ukrayinska Pravda
February 1, 2006

Leader of Party of Regions Viktor Yanukovych has at a disposal numerous signals from places about facts of oppressions of Party of Regions’ supporters and challenge to them.

Yanukovych declared that to journalists in Donetsk after Party of Regions’ oblast conference finishing.

“We suppose that the authority, including the President, by all means should not be in somebody’s favour at such not simple period of time”, – Yanukovych marked.

Thereby he added “by the way, including the Minister of Internal Affairs who is keeping on pounding his gums as he was doing all the year”.

“And there is a law for such person as the Minister of Internal Affairs, who should keep within the law as nobody else, and there is a political party which maintains discipline or does not do that”, – Yanukovych said.

Having in mind party membership of the Minister of Internal Affairs, Yanukovych marked: “Or socialists want to live in accordance with the law, or they want to have problems”.

“Because we still suppose that Prosecutor’s Office and Central Electoral Committee must react at all these questions”, – Yanukovych marked.

At the same time the head of Donetsk oblast council Borys Kolesnykov thanked to Donbass citizens for the fact that “in spite of all authority claims they even under the microscope did not find the bandits in Party of Regions lists”.

According to him into Donetsk oblast council were included representatives of industrial, commercial intelligentsia, representatives of the most significant non-government organizations, representatives of villages, workers collectives.

“At present day Party of Regions list into Oblast council includes quality quintessence of Donetsk region – it is Donbass pride and glory. And let any political force on the national level demonstrate such quality of the lists”, – stressed Kolesnykov.

3.Tymoshenko To Address Members Of European Parliament Delegation For Relations With Ukraine In Belgium On February 1
Ukrainian news
January 31, 2006

Leader of the eponymous bloc Yulia Tymoshenko will address members of the delegation of the European Parliament for relations with Ukraine in Brussels ( Belgium) on February 1.

This was disclosed in the report posted on the website of Ukraine's representative office with the European Union.

For instance, an extraordinary meeting of the European parliament delegation for relations with Ukraine will be held in Brussels on February 1.

The meeting will be held within the framework of work of the delegation for monitoring of external political situation in Ukraine ahead of parliamentary election.

Tymoshenko will participate in the meeting following the invitation of the head of delegation of the European parliament.

After the meeting Tymoshenko will hold a press conference.

As Ukrainian News earlier reported, the Central Election Commission registered Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko for the Verkhovna Rada elections on December 28, 2005.

Rada election will be held on March 26.

4. Party Of Regions, Our Ukraine, BYT, SPU, CPU, Lytvyn Bloc, Vitrenko Bloc, and NE TAK! Bloc Will Be Elected Into Rada, According To Sotsis Poll
Ukrainian news
January 31, 2006

The Party of the Regions, the Our Ukraine bloc, the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, the People's Bloc of Lytvyn, the Socialist Party (SPU), the Communist Party (CPU), the NE TAK! opposition bloc, and the Natalia Vitrenko People's Opposition bloc would win more than the 3% of votes required for representation in the parliament if the parliamentary elections were held now, according to the results of a poll conducted by the Sotsis center for social and political studies.

Sotsis' Director Mykola Churylov announced this at a press conference.

According to the results of the poll, the 34.05% of the respondents in it said they would vote for the Party of the Regions, 19.76% said they would vote for the Our Ukraine bloc, 12.82% said they would vote for the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, 5.67% said they would vote for the SPU, 4.47% said they would vote for the CPU, 4.54% for the People's Bloc of Lytvyn, 3.34% for the People's Opposition, and 3.4% for the NE TAK! bloc.

According to Churylov, the Party of the Regions and the Our Ukraine bloc are increasing their lead, the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc is slightly losing support, while the Socialist Party and the Communist Party remain stable because they have quite loyal voters that always support them.

At the same time, he described the supporters of the Our Ukraine bloc and the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc as quite unstable.

Moreover, Churylov said that the increase in the ratings of some parties result in reduction of the ratings of others. According to him, one can forecast on the basis of this that 6-7 parties will eventually be elected into the parliament.

Respondents were also asked which of the participants in the elections they would not vote for under any circumstances, 20.25% named the Party of the Regions, 19.05% named the Our Ukraine bloc, 12% named the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc.

Moreover, 7.1% of respondents said they would not vote for the Communist Party under any circumstances, 5.65% said they would not vote for the Vitrenko bloc, while 4% said they would not vote for the NE TAK! opposition bloc.

Fewer than 2% of respondents named the other parties and blocs as the ones they would not vote for under any circumstances.

Sotsis polled 2,000 people over the age of 18 in 78 cities and 43 villages during the January 18-23 period.

The margin of error is 2.24%.

As Ukrainian News earlier reported, 85.75% of Ukrainians polled by Sotsis said they intended to vote in this year's parliamentary elections.

5. 86% Of Ukrainians Polled By Socis Plan To Vote In Rada Elections
Ukrainian news
January 31, 2006

85.75% of Ukrainians polled by the Socis center for social and political studies intend to vote in this year's parliamentary elections.

Socis' Director Mykola Churylov announced this at a press conference.

According to the results of the poll, 7.25% of the respondents said they would not participate in the elections while 7% said they had not yet decided whether they would vote or not.

45.55% said they have made their choices, 17.45% said they were generally sure of voting for their selected party or bloc but could still change their decision, 2.5% said they were completely unsure of their choices, while 5.75% were undecided.

Socis polled 2,000 over the age of 18 in 78 cities and 43 villages during the January 18-23 period.

The margin of error is 2.24%.

As Ukrainian News earlier reported, the elections will be held on March 26.

6. In April Rinat Akhmetov will become Ukraine’s Prime Minister
Gulyai-pole
January 31, 2006

The Party of Regions became a party as such not so long ago. Actually it occurred when Victor Yushchenko was already in power, to be exact – in August last year when BlYa (Bloc of Yanukovich) decided not to go to the polls under this name.

At that time instead of the brand of the ex-presidential candidate something faceless appeared made as the Party of Regions. Experts then asserted that Boris Kolesnikov and Rinat Akhmetov hiding in his shadow are to blame for everything: they allegedly insisted that BlYa should disappear from the political Olympus. There was also talk about serious differences between Yanukovich and Akhmetov that flared up as early as in the period between the second and third presidential tours. However, soon the nation saw in the ranks of the Party of Regions both Yanukovich and Kolesnikov and – quite unexpectedly – Akhmetov. And no matter how hard Yanukovich’s spin doctors tried to eradicate the thought in the electorate’s minds that Yanukovich is not No.one in the ranks of the Party of Regions, hostile experts, political analysts and mass media went out of their way while Yulia Timoshenko put a full stop calling Yanukovich Akhmetov’s shadow. Rinat Akhmetov proper is now rumoured to be none other than the new prime minister, but the Party of Regions does not confirm this assumption, though they do not deny it either.

Limpets to Lipki

According to the various researchers of the present preferences of the population, the Party of Regions is now gaining weight rapidly. It is believed that this became possible thanks to, as the party members say, ‘thoughtless policy’ of the powers that be. Social democrats (united) hardened in political battles got the point quickly and called their bloc ‘Ne tak!’ (The wrong way!). In autumn it seemed that the Party of Regions after all will unite with the social-democrats to form the long-promised anti-orange coalition.  Ukrainian magazine Obozrevatel Chas.ua asked Nestor Shufrich, the most active member of SDPU (u), on the topic and got a short full answer: ‘There were discussions, a coalition was expected. However, after Yushchenko and Yanukovich have signed the memorandum we don’t know now what to do and what the Party of Regions wants.’

After the parliament dismissed the government of Yuri Ekhanurov Victor Yushchenko revoked his signature under the memorandum. It might seem now that the coalition will be created and the opposition wing will become even stronger.  However, representatives of the Party of Regions fraction were quiet during the process of disbanding the government; though they voted for the dismissal they kept a low profile. In point of fact, as Chas.ua already wrote, the dismissal of the Cabinet was initiated by SDPU (u) and by the deputies from the Bloc of Yulia Timoshenko who unexpectedly acted against Ekhanurov. Political analysts got even more confused after this – their forecasts on the situation in the country resemble more frequently fortune-telling with the use of coffee grounds. The reason is one – if BYT were on the side of the pro-ruling forces in the future parliament, the ex-premier might again get the prospect of regaining premiership. But now after the harsh criticism of the government by Timoshenko such a situation is rather closer to fantasy. And will the Party of Regions give the coveted post of prime minister to Timoshenko while the latter dissociates herself from the coalition with them?

Today the Party of Regions wishes to look like an independent political force in the eyes of the electorate that is able to distribute forces in the political Olympus if not make a majority. The Party of Regions even changed the headquarters having moved from Zoryanoi to prestigious Lipki. As the manager of the Party of Regions election HQ Evgeni Kushanarev said: none of his fellow party members are going to ‘cry poverty.’  ‘We must occupy the place that is appropriate for our status.’ That is, the Party of Regions lets the people know: they have the money all right, which is actually clear enough given the presence of Rinat Akhmetov alone in their ranks.

The technology is clear: the electorate must see the level of success it is necessary to aspire to, which is especially topical in view of economic problems in the country. This thesis is also actively voiced from the television screens when running an advertising roller of the Party of Regions. Victor Yanukovich and Company are portrayed as ‘saviours of the nation’ from economic collapse and the so called ‘people of deeds.’ It is worth noting that the Party of Regions is tuned eastwards, to be precise – to Donbass, where a year ago 90% of the electorate voted for Victor Yanukovich. It seems that the Party of Regions will also meet with success in the Kharkov region – as they say, with such election HQ manager God himself is willing…However, then Akhmetov’s fellow party members may face failures, for even the Crimea, as researchers say, has lately been looking towards other entities – they are not happy with the authorities either, and they also have mostly Russian-speaking population, however during the ‘silence’ of Victor Yanukovich in the summer last year Natalia Vitrenko was actively ‘grazing’ there, particularly in Sevastopol; most likely, she hoped that Yanukovich would put her on the list for previous merits. But Yanukovich did not include her in the list and now it is not clear what Natalia Vitrenko will tell about Yanukovich in the Crimea – sometimes the reaction of a hurt lady is absolutely unpredictable….

Where is that idea?

According to experts, Odessa and the TransCarpathian region are still in the bag, that is, the ratings of the united social democrats are still high there. Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhie never liked the ‘ Donetsk ones’ too much. Though they supported Yanukovich to spite Yushchenko, now there is Yulia Timoshenko – a compatriot, after all, and just a feast to the eye…In Donbass proper Yanukovich and Company have problems too. Let’s take Mariupol, for example: Vladimir Boiko recently said in an interview to the Ukrainian Pravda that he dislikes Yanukovich and knows his methods of operation. Boiko is known to participate in the election under the flag of SPU (socialists). And this means that Mariupol (to be correct – about 70% of this half-a-million-strong city) will surely support the Socialist Party in March. Boiko’s word in the south of Donbass is actually equivalent to that of God’s deputies if not God himself. So, the Party of Regions can strike out the south of the Donetsk region from the vote plan even now.

A casus may also occur in Lugansk where deputy minister of the interior (MVD) Gennadi Moskal was recently appointed governor. It is hardly possible to expect that one of those who put Boris Kolesnikov behind bars last year will all of a sudden be full of the ‘regional’ spirit. Rather, the opposite is true…And in the Donetsk region Yuri Grymchak, deputy to the incumbent governor Vadim Chuprun, is a long-time chum of Yuri Lutsenko and the former field commander of the Kiev Maidan square.  And Vladimir Boiko called Vadim Chuprun his friend and an incorruptible man.  So the Party of Regions will not get the administrative resource in the classical sense even in their domain. All they have to do is to set hopes on the leader’s qualities of Victor Yanukovich, on the successful operation of the headquarters (a year ago Yanukovich’s HQ botched the election) and on the resources of the richest Ukrainian of the Tartar nationality.

Recently in a conversation with the observer of Chas.ua the leader of Labour Ukraine Valery Konovalyuk noted that his party enjoys rather serious support in the same Donbass. He also mentioned that some members of the Party of Regions now put spokes in his wheels being afraid of competition. Konovalyuk who quit the fraction Regions of Ukraine in May last year believes that the Party of Regions is strong today only for one reason: because of mistakes of the powers that be. In Konovalyuk’s opinion, the weakness of the Party of Regions lies in the fact that the party up till now has neither an idea nor a strategic course. ‘I am afraid that the confrontation between the East and the West will begin again. The events that had taken place in the presidential election will seem childish games to the Ukrainians,’ Konovalyuk believes.  It so happens that the Party of Regions indeed has no plans whatsoever for their actions in the years to come? In the same parliament, for one. It is necessary to create a majority, but with whom – a big question….’

Boris to become King?!

According to experts, the Party of Regions learned a lot during the year of Yushchenko’s presidentship. Of special importance is the coming of Akhmetov to big politics: they say that the spin doctors have worked hard on the image of Rinat Akhmetov. Actually as early as in summer the Party of Regions announced the fact that American image-makers will now work for the party. It is curious that names were quoted who had earlier worked for Yushchenko’s victory. Recently Yanukovich said that the party has invited some more image makers who had experience of working in Africa. Respectively, something was also going on in the heads of the Party of Regions members with respect to future strategies in the same parliament.

As representatives of some political forces believe, the recent arrival of Major Melnichenko was orchestrated not by SPU at all, not even by BYT, but…by the Party of Regions. The sources assert that the scheme is simple: Melnichenko was supposed to be used against Vladimir Lytvyn so that somebody from the Party of Regions would take the chair of the present Speaker in the new parliament. ‘Somebody’ implies Boris Kolesnikov, while the post of prime minister was intended for none other than Rinat Akhmetov himself. However, it so happened, according to the sources, that Melnichenko failed to bring any action against Lytvyn after coming and even managed to lose in court in favour of the latter.

So far Victor Yanukovich and Company act as ‘saviours of the nation’ and expect what card will be dealt, which is not surprising after all. Rinat Akhmetov, No.7 in the list of the Party of Regions, is considered to be a genius card player able to guess a rival’s play five leads in advance…However, even genius players sometime make mistakes.

7. The Party of Regions calls on political forces of Ukraine not to hinder the implementation of the constitutional reform
Interfax-Ukraine
January 31, 2006

The Party of Regions insists that all political forces must in practice accept as a fact the entry into force of amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine which redistribute powers.

“The party demands that all political parties do not hinder the entry into force of amendments to the Constitution before the end of 2006 parliamentary elections,” Nikolay Azarov, Chairman of the party’s Political Council, said on Tuesday in his comments on the initiative of moving out of the political crisis.

Nikolay Azarov also said that to prevent unfair elections, the Party of Regions has set up a special legal service to “professionally register any violations.”

Commenting on the gas issue, Nikolay Azarov said that the agreements on gas supplies to the country should be of an intergovernmental nature and participation of any joint ventures in such agreements is out of the question. Nikolay Azarov also said that the Party of Regions is ready to develop a program to resolve the established problem situation.

Nikolay Azarov also harshly criticized the policies of the cabinets led by Yulia Tymoshenko andYury Yekhanurov in 2005. “ Ukraine is a record-holder in terms of number of people frozen to death among the European countries. The country proved to be unprepared for the winter season,” he noted.

8.Which parties have election lists with top fives most trusted by the voters?
Stolichnye Novosti
January 31, 2006

The sociological department of the Stolichnye Novosti Publishing House polled 2,260 respondents from cities across Ukraine ( Kiev, Odessa, Kharkov, Kirovograd, and Lvov). The raw information was collected through telephone interviews. The universe was residents of major cities of Ukraine and the sample was drawn through a probability sampling. The number of respondents interviewed in each of the cities was proportionate to the number of its residents:

Kiev — 46 percent
Kharkov — 22.1 percent
Odessa — 15.9 percent
Lvov — 12.4 percent
Kirovograd — 3.6 percent

The respondents were asked a question, “Which political party or a bloc has the election list with a top five you trust the most?”

The proportion of those who gave an answer — 63.7 percent
The proportion of those who trust no one — 25.2 percent
The proportion of those who found it difficult to answer — 11.1 percent

Among those who gave an answer, the votes distributed as follows:

Our Ukraine — 28.9 percent
Regions of Ukraine — 19.9 percent
The Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc — 19.1 percent
The Socialist Party — 6.3 percent
The Party of Greens of Ukraine — 5.1 percent
The Lytvyn People’s Bloc — 5.0 percent
The Communist Party — 3.7 percent
Pora—The Party of Reforms and Order — 3.2 percent
Nye Tak! Bloc — 2.2 percent
Veche — 2.2 percent
The People’s Opposition Bloc — 2.2 percent
The Kostenko – Plyushch Bloc — 2.2 percent.

9. The Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc warns the Yekhanurov Cabinet about their imminent responsibility for betrayal of national interests
BYT Press Office
January 31, 2006

In view of the fact that an extraordinary meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has been called to prepare establishment of a joint venture for supplies of gas to Ukraine on the basis of the “agreement” of January 4, 2006, the head of the Central Campaign Headquarters of the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc Aleksandr Turchinov made a special statement about the Yekhanurov Cabinet’s imminent responsibility for betrayal of national interests.

Aleksandr Turchinov said, in particular: Any steps of the Ukrainian government to speed up the introduction of new rules in gas supply framework with the mediation of Rosukrenergo are intolerable.

The Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc demands immediate stop to undermining of the energy security of the state and that the following be done immediately:

• Identify who the founders and the real owners of Rosukrenergo are.
• To obtain official findings of the Ministry of Economy as to the repercussions of the “agreement” of January 4, 2006 for the Ukrainian industry and the country’s population.
• Announce the official conclusions of the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine as to a possibility that a monopoly organization has been established.
• To examine the official warning of FATF about the criminal nature of Rosukrenergo.
• To give a political assessment of the country’s top leadership in relation to the above “agreement” and bring to justice those responsible for obvious betrayal of Ukraine’s national interests.

10.Tymoshenko needs Yushchenko’s support in countering Yanukovich
BYT Press Office
January 31, 2006

“Now I am going through a very difficult period, because Viktor Yushchenko is not by my side,” Yulia Tymoshenko admitted today, on January 31, during her live appearance on the Ternopol-based TV-4 television channel. In her view, Yushchenko should support her in countering Yanukovich, the way she supported Yushchenko during the presidential elections.

When commenting on the income declarations filed by politicians, Tymoshenko noted that it is important also to have declarations from “god parents, brothers and marriage brokers.” “We will not bring with us into politics any god parents, brothers and marriage brokers. Many people have proven that they are capable of doing their jobs and we have people other than relatives to choose from when selecting members of the future cabinet,” she said.

Responding to a question about gifts she receives on her trips to the provinces, the former prime minister said that she keeps them all in a specially designated room in her office. “However, the most dear and valuable presents are drawings and beaded Easter eggs made by children, and icons that carry the God’s blessing. I keep them in my office and at home. When I become exhausted I take them into my hands and it warms me up – for every such gift has a part of human heart put into it,” she said. Today’s present from the eighth-graders from a local school also belongs among such special gifts, Yulia Tymoshenko assured.

11. Tymoshenko: Poroshenko’s strategy is compromises with the clans
BYT Press Office
January 31, 2006

“Today the government follows the strategy of compromises with the former regime and with the clans. It is Poroshenko’s strategy and now it is active and in full blossom, while the people see that nothing is being changed,” Yulia Tymoshenko said today, on January 31, during a press conference in Ternopol.

“My goal is to prevent formation of the “axis of security” between Yushchenko and Yanukovich, Yanukovich and Bohatyryova referred to, and not to let anyone destroy our alliance with the President,” she noted, adding that she wants to reestablish unity with Yushchenko through the parliamentary elections.

According to Tymoshenko, she was offered “all things on Earth, even a star from the sky” in exchange for her support in appointing Pyotr Poroshenko Prime Minister. “When I flatly refused they made me Prime Minister just for half a year only to compromise me in the eyes of the people,” she explained.

Touching on the issue of reprivatization, the former prime minister said that the process was deliberately stopped “not to let people sense how much money could be received from it – because otherwise complaints of people against the government would have been endless.”

Yulia Tymoshenko also reminded about the way the constitutional reform was adopted: “When Kuchma and Co. were packing things and thinking about which border to cross to flee the country, virtually at the border they stopped Kuchma, invited him to Parliament and voted for the constitutional reform.” Holding a referendum on this issue would be another mistake, in Tymoshenko’s view, as it could develop into a plebiscite on confidence in the President.

12.Tymoshenko: Yushchenko’s inner circle is trying to convince him to make an alliance with Yanukovich
BYT Press Office
January 30, 2006

During her live appearance on a local TV channel on her visit to Ivano-Frankovsk on Monday, January 30, Yulia Tymoshenko gave comments on the statements made by Raisa Bohatyryova and Viktor Yanukovich about the need to create the “Yushchenko-Yanukovich axis of security” and “hold negotiations with the constructively-minded forces from the orange camp.”

“It is not an absurd, but a focused strategy of Yanukovich,” she warned.

“Some people in Our Ukraine are again trying to convince the President that an alliance with Yanukovich is unification between the West and the East, and there is a need for it. However, I will always oppose it, because it is a sure way to lose a chance to put things in order in Ukraine,” Tymoshenko said.

She reminded of her stand on the issue she voiced before: “Either our political force forms a coalition with Yushchenko, or we go into the opposition. We will not make any coalitions with Yanukovich.”

The former prime minister also added that she wants Yushchenko and his team to make a similar statement, too, because silence on the part of Our Ukraine and insistent proposals from the Party of Regions “are very much embarrassing” for her.

In addition, during her live appearance Yulia Tymoshenko spoke about the draft bills her political force is going to develop and pass after the end of the elections. According to her, those ideas which have already been developed by her cabinet will be the first to be implemented.

In the first place, in Tymoshenko’s view, five bills on housing policy need to be adopted: “These laws will grant people the right to obtain in a relatively short time long-term loans for 10 to 30 years, virtually without interest, and get an opportunity to buy themselves homes.”

Secondly, the former prime minister plans to establish a legal framework for minority shareholders to be able to receive their share of profits from the securities they have: “About 14 million people in Ukraine have a small amount of shares they received for their privatization vouchers. These laws would oblige companies to pay those people in full part of the profits that is due to them.”

Tymoshenko also wants to adopt a package of laws that would minimize shadow schemes in the economy and change the budget policy. “I want to make active already in this year’s budget a system which would channel the money to the child to help with his upbringing and education. I want to prove that the government can work for the people,” Yulia Tymoshenko said.

Responding during her live appearance to a question whether she does needlework, Yulia Tymoshenko noted that “in my past life before I became a politician I did everything with my own hands.”

“We made a family together with a man when I was 18, then I had a baby girl for whom I made dresses and costumes for holidays myself and I also – like every woman – liked to cook,” she recalled.

“Now I am deprived of these small sweets of life, but my family still remains a support for me – these are the people I can rely on. They make everything they can to help me walk through this difficult path,” Yulia Tymoshenko assured. “I hope we will build Ukraine and then we will have a chance to do needlework and start cooking for the family.”

Tymoshenko was also asked about her home pets – in particular, about a puppy Kharkiv residents presented to her. According to the former prime minister, the puppy “has naturalized, become a family member and even shares our ideas.” She showed a copy of the Ivchenko-Miller gas agreement nibbled by the terrier as a proof.