Upcoming Ukrainian Parliamentary Elections

Kiev's economic performance on trial as parliamentary elections loom
 
Associated Press
By ALEX NICHOLSON
March 20, 2006

For the leaders of Ukraine's Orange Revolution, who inherited a US$6 billion (A5 billion) budget hole and an impoverished population impatient to see corruption eradicated, getting a handle on the economy was never going to be simple.

And 15 months later, with parliamentary elections looming, Ukrainian voters have shifted their focus from regime change to how the government has handled the economy. Their votes March 26 will help determine whether the changes needed to modernize the economy and open it further to the West are pushed through or founder amid political infighting.

The popular mood isn't encouraging for proponents of reform.

Alexander Ivanov, a 43-year-old electrician, says salaries have failed to keep pace with rising prices for daily items. "Workers now buy their sausage for 30 hryvna (US$6, A5) and wages haven't gone up," he said. "I don't think people in politics pay any attention to the ordinary people."

Still, investors are bullish. Construction cranes dot Kiev's skyline and BMWs speed down its elegant boulevards, while a mix of languages can be heard in restaurants packed with foreign executives who are rushing to cut deals in a huge market largely free of competition.

"The government doesn't get involved in the day-to-day affairs of ordinary businessmen," said Alex Frishberg, a veteran Kiev-based lawyer, adding that politicians were too busy with "constant infighting."

"What you have in Kiev is the purest form of capitalism," he said.

The economy has taken plenty of hits. Erratic policies under firebrand former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in the early months of the Orange government _ compounded by a 30 percent decline in late 2004 in international prices for steel, Ukraine's key export _ squashed economic growth from 12.1 percent in 2004 to just 2.6 percent in 2005.

President Viktor Yushchenko's opponents have hammered a January gas deal with Russia, which saw the price of gas imports nearly double to US$95 (A80) per 1,000 cubic meters, as potentially lethal for Ukraine's gas-intensive and inefficient industries.

The agreement came after Moscow demanded Kiev pay nearly five times more for its gas and temporarily halted supplies, also causing interruptions in European deliveries. Observers called Moscow's stance punishment for Yushchenko's pledges to bring Ukraine closer to Europe and out of Russia's orbit.

And corruption remains entrenched. If a clique of oligarchs wielded power under former President Leonid Kuchma, analysts and businessmen say the Orange Revolution has simply expanded the pool of tycoons with ties to power.

On the other hand, foreign direct investment came in at a record US$7.9 billion (A6.6 billion) in 2005 _ nearly as much as had entered the country since its independence in 1991. That jump came almost solely through the reprivatization of the Kryvorizhstal steel plant, which Mittal Steel Co., bought last fall for a jaw-dropping US$4.8 billion (A4.02 billion).

The auction was a huge vote of business confidence for Yushchenko, who had promised during his campaign to smash the nepotistic excesses of the old regime. The plant, which accounts for 20 percent of Ukraine's metals output, had been sold to Kuchma's billionaire son-in-law in 2004 for a fifth of what Mittal paid.

Then came a series of acquisitions of Ukraine's top banks. Within the last six months, Austria's Raiffaisen bought a controlling stake in Aval Bank for over US$1 billion (A830 million), France's BNP Paribas snapped up 51 percent of Ukrsibbank for about US$500 million (A419 million) and Italy's Banca Intesa acquired more than 85 percent of Ukrsotsbank for just over US$1 billion.

Further support came from the European Union _ which Yushchenko has pledged to join _ when it granted Ukraine market economy status, began talks on easier visa rules and agreed to sign a free trade deal after Kiev joins the World Trade Organization. Last week, Ukraine and the United States agreed on a deal on Ukraine's accession to the WTO.

That has gone a long way to calm the nerves of local and foreign investors after the roller-coaster stewardship of Tymoshenko, who was fired and replaced in September by Yuriy Yekhanurov, who is seen as more business-friendly.

As part of an anti-corruption drive under Tymoshenko, foreign investors were left smarting after the sudden termination of the tax havens provided by free economic zones. Her bombshell pledge to review some 3,000 questionable privatizations shook faith in property rights and contributed to a dramatic drop in domestic investment, while her decision to cap gasoline prices ahead of the spring sowing season prompted production cuts at Ukraine's Russian-controlled refineries _ sending prices soaring.

But there were successes. The anti-corruption campaign saw tax revenues rise by about 70 percent _ plastering over the 32 billion hryvna (US$6.4 billion; A5.3 billion) budget deficit opened by the populist spending policies of former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych before the presidential election.

Still, many Ukrainians have been disillusioned with Yushchenko's promises of prosperity through closer ties to the EU, and analysts predict a strong showing by Yanukovych's pro-Moscow Party of the Regions bloc.

There are high expectations of a parliamentary majority formed between Yushchenko and his rival Yanukovych, who is bankrolled by powerful business magnate Rinat Akhmetov, a former Kryvorizhstal shareholder who today is worth US$1.7 billion (A1.4 billion) according to Forbes magazine. Considered the real force behind Yanukovych, Akhmetov is running for parliament and is rumored to have his eye on the prime minister's office.

While some analysts have said that union could pull Ukraine further back into Russia's orbit, others see Akhmetov as a realist whose metals businesses stand to benefit from the removal of antidumping restrictions, which WTO membership would eventually lead to. Some suggest he would also be averse to Russian companies encroaching on his business activities, which could be a consequence of Kiev's membership in a planned "common economic space" between Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan.

Kamen Zahariev, country director for the European bank for Reconstruction and Development, noted that Ukraine has had 11 prime ministers in the past 15 years and said that above all, political stability would be key to Ukraine's economic progress.

"Really, our hope is for a clear result and for a majority to be formed that would allow a government to stay in place for a year or 18 months," Zahariev said.

Blue Days in Ukraine - A hard-fought election will decide whether the orange revolution needs to change its colors
Time Magazine, European Edition
BY YURI ZARAKHOVICH / KIEV
March 27, 2006

Under bleached winter skies, Kiev is saturated with color — blues, ice whites, reds and, of course, orange. Political parties have plastered every wall in their liveries; their supporters declare allegiance with vivid scarves, headbands and banners at rallies patrolled by riot police. It's as if Hollywood had decided to re-enact the orange revolution that less than 15 months ago installed the people's choice, Viktor Yushchenko, as Ukrainian President. In the Hollywood version Yushchenko would be an unimpeachable hero and his ousted rival, the former Russia-backed Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, an unalloyed villain.

But parliamentary elections this Sunday, the real reason for the colorful factional displays, are set to prove that there are no heroes in Ukrainian politics — and no irredeemable villains either. Three parties lead a field of 44 competing for the 450 seats in the parliament, the Verkhovna Rada. Yushchenko's liberal-democratic Our Ukraine (ou) faces strong competition from the Bloc of Yuliya Tymoshenko (BYuT), led by Yushchenko's erstwhile ally and now his bitter opponent. And opinion polls suggest that neither party can expect as many votes as the Party of the Regions (pr). Recent polls predict just under 18% for ou and 16% for BYuT. With strong support in predominantly Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, pr is looking at a hefty lead. "We expect to carry well over 35% of the vote," Nikolai Azarov, chair of pr's political council, told Time.

That would not be enough for an outright majority in the Rada but would mark an extraordinary rehabilitation for Yanukovych, the pr leader originally declared the winner of the 2004 presidential contest against Yushchenko but replaced by his rival after vote rigging provoked an outburst of popular rage. The office of President is not in contention but constitutional reforms have transferred the selection of Prime Minister and most of the Cabinet from the President to the Rada. If Yanukovych gets enough votes to form a coalition with smaller parties, he will have more influence on selecting a government than Yushchenko. That would likely undermine the President's drive to integrate Ukraine more closely with the West, toward an eventual aim of membership in the European Union. Instead, Ukraine would once more align itself with Moscow. "This is a very special election," says Volodymyr Lytvyn, the Rada speaker and leader of the centrist People's Bloc. "At stake is whether Ukraine has passed the point of no return to its so recent authoritarian past."

The orange government came to power promising fundamental change that would make such a return impossible. And to an extent it has delivered: for business, less red tape and tax; for the wider community, better wages and pensions, free speech and fair elections. "Profound democratic changes have occurred both in the structures of the state and in people's minds," says Vasily Doroshchuk, head of Caravan Records, one of the country's leading record labels. But these achievements have been undermined by food and fuel shortages, and soaring inflation. "Some 40% [of voters] are still undecided how they will vote," says the incumbent ou Prime Minister Yuri Yekhanurov. "Most of them are our supporters, but they're now at a loss, because they expected too much too fast, which simply couldn't happen." He predicts that "the Rada will end up split the same way as society."

Those fault lines deepened last autumn, when Yushchenko and Tymoshenko, one-time comrades-in-arms who spearheaded the orange revolution, traded accusations of betraying the cause. Their rift will now play out at the ballot box. "It's like choosing between mother and father when the family breaks up," says record-label boss Doroshchuk.

As often happens in divorce cases, a third party may benefit. A pr activist says, baldly: "We're preparing to grab the rewards of our political comeback." The party's official program is much more benign: improvements to the economy and a better deal for Ukraine in the price of natural gas, nearly doubled by Russia after it briefly suspended supplies late last December. "Russia is an influence, of course," says Yekhanurov. "It's like having a furnace the other side of an inadequate partition wall: they turn it up, you feel the heat; they turn it down, you feel the cold."

As the election approaches, the political temperature is being stoked by the prospect of the largest parties being forced to govern in coalition. Rada Speaker Lytvyn dismisses talk of an ou-pr pairing. "I don't see these two entering a coalition," he says. "But should I prove wrong, I can only say that there are no principles left in politics any more." His reaction was echoed by Tymoshenko in a TV interview last week. "If they go for it, what was the revolution all about, then?" she asked.

Failure to establish a workable government won't just call into question the meaning of the orange revolution. A standoff between Yushchenko and the Rada could unleash the violence and disintegration the revolution avoided. "The country will not endure the ensuing confrontation," says Lytvyn. "Its stamina is exhausted." Fair elections are a legacy of the orange revolution. But denied an upbeat, Hollywood ending, Ukraine's political narrative could still turn into something as bleak and ambiguous as a cold war thriller.

Elections Could Move Ukraine Back Toward Moscow
Associated Press
March 19, 2006

KIEV (AP)--Voters look set to deal President Viktor Yushchenko a rebuff in a parliamentary election next Sunday that could tilt their divided country back toward Russia just 16 months after a revolution that appeared to move Ukraine closer to the West.

It's a bitter twist for Yushchenko, whose Orange Revolution ushered in the very reforms that are making this contest the most democratic in the former Soviet republic's history.

Now he must contend with polls predicting the winner will be his arch-foe, ex-Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, the man whose fraud-marred run for the presidency in 2004 triggered the revolution that along with similar upheavals in the former Soviet states of Georgia and Kyrgyzstan has encouraged democratic restiveness in neighboring Belarus.

Yushchenko's presidency isn't at stake in this election, but widespread disappointment with the peaceful revolution's unfulfilled promises of prosperity and an end to corruption has left Yushchenko's camp struggling even to win second place.

The resurgence of Yanukovych, whose political career seemed buried by the Orange Revolution, could reshape the pro-Western politics of this nation of 47 million people stretching between the European Union and Russia.

Most analysts predict Yushchenko will be pragmatic and reach out to Yanukovych to form a coalition, since neither of their parties will get enough votes to form a parliamentary majority.

Proponents of a coalition say it could help bridge Ukraine's deep regional divisions, absorb the 44% of voters who didn't support the revolution, and improve Kiev's rocky ties with Moscow.

Critics say it could slow Ukraine's West-ward turn and return power to some officials that the Orange Revolution leaders had vowed to jail.

"If this coalition is formed, what was the point of the revolution?" said former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, whose acrimonious split with the president last fall shattered the Orange Revolution team.

The charismatic Tymoshenko, whose fiery speeches helped spur the protesters in November 2004, wants the prime minister's job back and has focused her campaign on disillusioned revolution supporters who, analysts say, could give her party a strong showing.

Yushchenko's bloc has countered by spending much of the campaign blaming Tymoshenko for the plunge in annual economic growth from 12% to 2%, the rise in prices of staples such as meat and sugar, and last year's privatization debacle that scared off foreign investors.

Both insist in public that they want to reunite, but when asked recently to name one good thing Tymoshenko did in office, Yushchenko's face hardened. Seconds ticked by. "I'm composing my emotions so I can restrain them," he said finally, and didn't name one thing.

Publication of polls in the week before an election is barred, and earlier surveys varied dramatically. But most put Yanukovych's bloc in the lead with around 30%, followed by Yushchenko's and Tymoshenko's parties running neck-and-neck at 15% to 22% each.

That could mean Yushchenko having to serve out the 3 1/2 years left in his term with a government working against him, Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov warned voters.

West, East Ukraine still split in heated election
Reuters
By Sergei Karazy
March 18, 2006

STRIY, Ukraine (Reuters) - A longstanding divide between nationalist Western Ukraine and its Russian-speaking east -- the fault line in the 2004 "Orange Revolution" -- remains unhealed a week before an election with high stakes.

Liberal President Viktor Yushchenko, propelled to power by the Revolution but now plagued by splits in his camp, faces challenges from two figures in the March 26 parliamentary poll.

In the west, Yulia Tymoshenko, his ally who roused crowds in the revolution but was sacked as prime minister last year, chips away at his support. The east remains the fiefdom of Viktor Yanukovich, the pro-Moscow rival he beat in the 2004 campaign.

Parliament enjoys new powers, enabling parties holding a majority to name the prime minister for the first time. And speculation is rife that the president's allies will have to join forces with one side or the other to form a government.

"The revolution is not yet finished. We must keep fighting to secure power!" Tymoshenko told a crowd of 5,000 on Friday in the small western town of Striy, near the Polish border.

Sporting her trademark peasant braid, Tymoshenko wades into the cobbled streets dotted by neatly painted houses, demanding action to revive the spirit of the 2004 protests and keep out "the Yanukovich gang".

Tymoshenko denounces a January deal sharply raising the price of gas prices -- a central campaign issue -- as a ruse to keep Ukraine under Moscow's control.

And she makes it plain she wants to be prime minister again.

"Why did we carry out a revolution? Not for this gang to come back as victors. Never!" she says, embracing supporters carrying campaign flags depicting a heart on a white background.

"There is only one path. Win the votes of those who stood on our side of the barricade, remove politicians who advised us badly, rejoin forces with the president and return to the path as set down before the 2004 election."

YANUKOVICH IN THE LEAD

Latest opinion polls give Yanukovich's Regions Party the lead among more than 40 groups, with about 30 percent.

The president's Our Ukraine party, led by the prime minister who replaced Tymoshenko, is second with 18 percent to about 14 for Tymoshenko's bloc.

Ukrainian-speaking Western regions, once under the control of both Poland and the Austro-Hungarian empire, are the cradle of Ukrainian national sentiment and deeply suspicious of Yanukovich and his calls for closer ties with Russia.

In the Russian-speaking industrial east, Yanukovich starts a day of campaigning on Friday by visiting his mother's grave and -- with television crews in tow -- securing a blessing from an Orthodox priest "in your battle against evil".

Later, at a steel mill in his home town of Yenakievo, he tells 5,000 supporters Yushchenko is driving Ukraine to ruin.

The country's leaders, he says, must improve ties with Russia to negotiate a better gas deal. And coal miners, his key constituents furious at wage arrears, must get paid on time.

"Gas prices will make our industry uncompetitive. How can we trust this government?" he says against a backdrop of smoke-belching plants.

He remains unbowed by his 2004 defeat, when Yushchenko won a re-run of a poll struck down as rigged by the Supreme Court.

"They didn't break us. We are ready to take power," he says. "I know you dream of stability, of someone representing the true face of 48 million Ukrainians. Not someone traveling the world, cap in hand, to take in odd pennies."

Young admirers carrying balloons in the Regions Party's blue and white colors mount the stage to shake Yanukovich's hand.

A wrinkled woman, wrapped in a brown shawl, is brought gingerly forward and embraces him.

"There, there, don't cry, my dear grandmother," Yanukovich tells her. "Everything will soon be fine."

Ukrainian Police Searches for Forged Voting Ballots
Kommersant
March 20, 2006

The parliamentary election in Ukraine is set for the next week, and authorities have already stepped up efforts against violations. President Viktor Yushchenko said on Saturday over 50 criminal cases involving violations of the election law were opened. The Ukrainian police reported that forged ballots may appear at polling stations. Remuneration has been promised to those who will help find forgers.
As the voting day is approaching, the Ukrainian authorities stepped up efforts to prevent violations at the election. Ukrainian President Yushchenko said in a Saturday weekly address to the nation that dozens of criminal cases had been opened on violations of the election law. Most of them are to probe in attacks on canvassers in Donbass and Western Ukraine.

Yaroslav Davydovich, the head of the Ukrainian Central Election Commission, is convinced, however, that the campaign “goes on almost perfectly”. “During the 2004 presidential election campaign, we received scores of complaints on violations and use of authority resource almost every day. In contrast, we have not received a single one today, for example.” The 2006 election is going to be the first fair voting in Ukraine, Mr. Davydovich believes.

Nonprofit organizations are not that upbeat. Serious problems may arise from the fact that elections of different levels are held on the one day, according to the Committee of Voters of Ukraine. Independent experts fear that there can be confusion at polling stations as mayors, deputies of the Supreme Rada and local legislators are to be elected on the one day.

The Ukrainian Interior Ministry also anticipates violations. Minister Yury Lutsenko said that they expect forged ballots to be issued on the election day. The Interior Minister promised a gratuity for those who will help find forged ballots and their producers. $60,000 has been allocated to these ends.

The Party of Regions numbers 1,000,000 members
ForUm
March 20, 2006

March 21, at 1 p.m. Victor Yanukovich will present the millionth Party-membership card to Olena Novachuk, the teacher of Kyiv region rural secondary school, the press service informed.

After the ceremony, the leader of the Party of Regions will be interviewed by Newsweek and the Washington Post and pay scheduled visit to Bila Tserkva.

NTN will broadcast live program with Victor Yanukovich in the evening.

Canadian delegation to observe the parliamentary election in Ukraine
ForUm
March 20, 2006

Paul Grod's job, at least for the next week, is to save democracy in Ukraine.

Along with 149 other Canadians -- including 53 from the Toronto area -- he left for the European country yesterday to serve as an observer in the March 26 parliamentary election, Toroto Sun informed.

The Mississauga businessman played a similar role in the 2004 election, so he is trained in catching voter fraud and intimidation.

"It's up to us to stand there and say this is incorrect and I would like to see the voters list and the ballot box," Grod said, explaining how election observers thwarted assaults on democracy during the 2004 presidential vote -- and plan to do the same again.

"If there are three boxes registered, then why are there five here?"

Proud to fulfil this duty, he said information gathered by the Canadian team in 2004 helped annul that round of elections.

"I'm happy that we as Canadians are making an effort to improve things over there," Grod said.

The Ukrainian Canadian Congress organized the current delegation, which paid out of pocket for transportation to and from the country, but which will receive room and board while there.

They'll have two days of training on domestic voting laws and how to spot illegal behaviour, such as ballot stuffing and turnstyling -- whereby voters are paid to slip a marked ballot into the box and return from the voting station with a blank one.

Along with 40,000 observers sent from the international community, Canadians will visit up to 1,000 of the 33,000 polling stations across Ukraine's 24 provinces.

"It's something I feel very strongly about," said Grod, a 35-year-old of Ukrainian descent. "We're doing more than just observing. Our mere presence there is a real deterrent to election fraud. "

No Ukrainian polling stations for Transdniester
ForUm
March 20, 2006

Chairman of Central Election Commission (CEC) Yaroslav Davidovich declares that polling stations for parliamentary election in Ukraine will not be formed in Transdniester, as there are no legal grounds for this. Only two election stations will function on the territory of Moldova, said Davidovich in an interview to journalists.

According to CEC Chairman, one should not see any political implication in this situation. All questions should be addressed to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, which has not passed a corresponding resolution about formation of polling stations in Transdniester for reason understandable only to the VR.

US Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Ambassador Herbst on the parliamentary election in Ukraine
ForUm
March 20, 2006

“The fair election will positively influence the neighbors as well as consolidate the country. The free and fair election is extremely necessary for further Euro and Atlantic integration of Ukraine,” said US Ambassador John Herbst making a speech in Kyiv Drahomanov’s National Teachers’ Training University.

Mr. Herbst marked out the USA represents neutral support for all democratic processes happening in Ukraine.

“The USA provides Ukraine with $13.3-million support for free and fair election as a part of our help program,” said Mr. Herbst stressing once again there is no “US favorite” in the election. The US government will cooperate with the winner of the fair, free and democratic election process.

CEC wants to know who finances Ukrainian parties
ForUm
March 20, 2006

After the parliamentary elections Central Election Commission will examine financing sources of those political blocs and parties, which took part in the elections, as declared CEC Chairman Yaroslav Davidovich.

“After the elections we will analyze in detail the financing of election funds,” said Davidovich and added that “vast sums of money are spent on elections’ organization, but sources of financing are unknown.”

Commenting on the law about return of means in the amount of 30 mln UAH, spent on political agitation, to those bloc and parties, which will win seats in the Parliament, Davidovich named two aspects. On one hand he “grudges these means,” which must be allocated from the state budget, but on the other hand, “the state has a right to control expenditure of allocated means.”

According to article 98, item 1 of the Law “On parliamentary elections in Ukraine”, “parties and blocs, which gained three and more percents of votes during parliamentary election, have a right to compensation of means spent on pre-election agitation at government expense in the amount of real charges, but not exceeding hundred thousand of minimum wages for each party.”

  “Our Ukraine” has public resource, and Yanukovych has important one
Ukrayinska Pravda
March 19, 2006

The best electoral program in this parliamentary company is in Bloc “Our Ukraine” and Socialist Party, but the best financial possibilities are in Party of Regions.

Such are the results of expert questionnaire of 95 Ukrainian journalists, political analysts and sociologists. The questionnaire was conducted by “Deminitsiatyvy” (“Democratic Initiatives”) on February 24 – March 7, 2006.

In nomination “the best electoral program” the experts assessed Bloc “Our Ukraine” (20 voices) and Socialist Party of Ukraine (20 voices), is mentioned in press-release.

Next according to the level of received voices are: BYuT (15 voices), Party of Regions and Party “Viche” (13 voices), “Pora-PRP” (12 voices), Narodny Bloc of Lytvyn (10 voices), Bloc of Kostenko and Plyushch (6 voices).

19 experts suppose that there are not good electoral programs in any party or bloc, or simply they do know such.

Concerning financial possibilities, preference to Party of Regions, according to experts, is absolute (83 voices). The second place concerning financial possibilities the experts assessed to Bloc “Our Ukraine” (46 voices), the third one – to Bloc of Lytvyn (20 voices).

Concerning presence of famous leaders there are two clear “leaders” of electoral races participants: Party of Regions (68 voices) and BYuT (63 voices).

Besides this, there were named Bloc “Our Ukraine” (28 voices), Socialist Party (9 voices), Bloc of Lytvyn (5 voices), Bloc “Ne Tak!” (4 voices), Bloc “Pora-PRP” and Bloc of Kostenko and Plyushch (1 voice).

Among political forces that possess the biggest administrative resource the “leaders” are Bloc “Our Ukraine” (75 voices), Party of Regions (58 voices) and Bloc of Lytvyn (20 voices).

In comments concerning this item the experts marked that administrative resource is dispersed mostly geographically on these elections: “Bloc “Our Ukraine” – but probably most formally than really. Probably it is public resource”. “Party of Regions – on East, “Our Ukraine” – on West”; “Party of Regions is local but important administrative resource”.

For advance of previous activity most of the experts (38 voices) assessed Bloc “Our Ukraine”. Next according to the level of advance are Socialist Party of Ukraine (26 voices), Party of Regions (23 voices), Bloc of Yuliya Tymoshenko (23 voices).

Considerable part of the experts (12 voices) supposes that any party or bloc has no experience of advanced previous activity.

Concerning possessing of the most qualified team three political forces received almost same quantity of voices: Party of Regions (27 voices), Bloc “Our Ukraine” (25 voices) and Bloc of Yuliya Tymoshenko (25 voices).

The experts were not consentaneous concerning those political forces that during the elections used dirty methods towards the opponents. On their point of view, dirty methods in electoral campaign are used the most frequently by Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko,, Party of Regions, Bloc of Nataliya Vitrenko “People Opposition”, Oppositional Bloc “Ne Tak!” and Bloc “Our Ukraine”.

Timoshenko: The biggest fighter against Yanukovich is… Yanukovich himself
Zavtra
March 19, 2006

“The biggest fighter against Yanukovich is… Yanukovich himself,” said Yulia Timoshenko. “After his visits residents of Odessa cannot come to senses because of his remark about Anna Akhmetova [a mispronounced name of the famous Russian female poet Anna Akhmatova], and people in the city of Chernovtsy are equally bewildered after Yanukovich confused Christian church holidays in his speech at the official opening of a cathedral there and said he was glad to do the inauguration on the last day of the Great Fast. After that I officially congratulated him on the Easter Day. It was precisely why I exerted every effort to have Yanukovich travel the provinces as much as he can – to let the voters see the true face of him.”

According to Timoshenko, the east of Ukraine and the Crimea think Yanukovich is the person who will defend the Russian language, support Ukraine’s joining of the Common Economic Space, and fight against accession to NATO. “I have examined a number of documents from session meetings of the Verkhovna Rada and I want to say that Yanukovich, as well as his team, voted in favor of virtually every issue related to NATO. So, it appears that he is somewhat misleading his own voters,” the leader of the Yulia Timoshenko Bloc noted.

As for the future parliamentary stand of the BYuT, Timoshenko said that her bloc will not “in all circumstances unite either with the Party of Regions, or with any other exotic alliance of the type of “Nye TAK!” (“Not YES!”), “Not HOW!” or “Not THERE!.” “We will either be with the President or will honestly work in the opposition,” Yulia Timoshenko summed up.

Timoshenko finds “Akhmatova’s grandson” in the Party of Regions
Ukrainskaya Pravda
March 17, 2006

The leader of the BYuT Yulia Timoshenko believes that the Yekhanurov cabinet “has nothing to boast of.”

Timoshenko said that in an interview she granted to the Lviv-based newspaper Express, reports the Press Office of the Yulia Timoshenko Bloc.

Timoshenko pointed out that the “mistakes” she made in the office of the head of the government “have suddenly become successes of the Yekhanurov cabinet, because, to say the truth, he himself has nothing to boast of.”

“Even its campaign adverts Our Ukraine has made on the basis of the achievements of my cabinet: Kryvorizhstal, salaries and wages, financial assistance for birth mothers, etc. But I do not grudge it. It is good when the achievements of my cabinet suffice to make campaign adverts for several political forces,” said the leader of the Yulia Timoshenko Bloc.

At the same time she noted that “this time for the good of the people I will not entrust anyone with performing the sophisticated and responsible job of managing the economy.”

“Besides, this time I will come into the government not alone, when in the rear of you instead of support you constantly feel the blade of a knife pressed against your back. We will come as a team of professionals and patriots who will not build their own prosperity on politics. It will be a government without cronyism,” Timoshenko added.

Commenting on the list of her potential competitors for the office of Prime Minister, the leader of the Yulia Timoshenko Bloc said: “It is a disgrace and dishonor for any European party not to have its own candidate for the post of Prime Minister.”

“The Yulia Timoshenko Bloc has named its candidate. And why others are keeping silence? It is because most parties in this country have such candidates (if you can call them so) that one feels an urge to hide them from the eyes of the voters as safely as one can and not show them to anyone,” Timoshenko believes.

“Who will be a candidate for the post of Prime Minister from the People’s Union Our Ukraine: Poroshenko, Zhvaniya, or Chervonenko? Which one? And from the Party of Regions? Yanukovich himself or Rinat the “grandson” of the Odessa-based female poet Anna Akhmatova?” asked the leader of the Yulia Timoshenko Bloc.

“People should know whom they are electing. One should vote for a person who will lead the country, rather than for a pig in a poke,” Timoshenko stressed.

'Our Ukraine' and BYuT forward about a thousand of their monitors to the Donetsk oblast. The actions’ efficiency equals zero
Ostrov
March 17, 2006

The oblast divisions of ‘Our Ukraine’ and Julia Tymoshenko’s Bloc are forwarding hundreds of their monitors to the polling stations of the Donetsk oblast. The Committee of electors of Ukraine skeptically evaluate such tactics, according to ’Glavred’ with reference to ‘German Wave’.

Per words of Roman Balkuka, in charge of the work at polling stations, ‘Our Ukraine’ intends to send about 800 people for a business travel from Lvov oblast to Donetsk. Besides, BYuT is going to send 120 people who would go on their own money. The work of both headquarters is not coordinated; they are sending their monitors separately.

R. Balukha noted that those citizens are willing to go who have already the experience of monitoring work and elementary knowledge of the election legislation. ‘We provide them with methodical materials, cards of monitors, questionnaires, And also we teach them how to behave in the east,’ he said.

He also remarked that this actions is not connected with the insufficiency of people in Donetsk, ‘it’s just that monitors should work there which wouldn’t be able to be pressed upon’.

It’s true that the Committee of electors think the efficiency of this practice will be close to zero, because there go the people who don’t know the legislation well and therefore, they can hardly prevent the possible violations at the polling stations.

Bessmertny expects surprise during elections in Donbass
Ostrov
March 17, 2006

The head of election headquarters of the bloc ‘Our Ukraine’, Roman Bessmernty, considers that voting in the Donetsk region ‘will surprise many’. He said that responding to the questions of the readers of the ‘Komsomolskaya Pravda’ under the heading ‘Straight Line’.

In his mind, 'Our Ukraine' in the Donetsk oblast will be supported by the representatives of the small business. ‘I remember the tines when every place at the market, every tent and kiosk were charged daily. It is for the first time that the small business got freedom; people started working peacefully, racket stopped taking money from them. They will vote of ‘Our Ukraine', Mr. Bessmertny noted.

He also expressed the hope that his bloc will be supported by the ‘workers in Makeyevka, Gorlovka and other industrial centers’.

‘We have very close contacts with the heads of mining amalgamations and we are trying to help them. It is evidence that Donbas is gradually becoming free, it won’t be a slave. The other thing is that not all the people understand how fine the lie is that the leaders of the Party of Regions are speaking today’, M. Bessmertny said.

‘I am sure that Donbas will make a surprise at those elections for those who consider it to be their private main’, he concluded.

Vydrin foretells Akhmetov’s “great political future”
Ostrov
March 19, 2006

A well known Ukrainian political scientist, Director of the European Integration and Development Institute, Dmitry Vydrin, is of the opinion that the president of the “Shakhtyor” football club and people’s deputy candidate, Rinat Akhmetov, has a “great political future”.

“I think that Akhmetov has a great political future lying ahead of him”, - announced D. Vydrin at a press conference in Donetsk on March 17. According to him, in comparison with the current leader of the Party of Regions, Viktor Yanukovich, Rinat Akhmetov “is more practical and more capable” of becoming this Party’s leader after the parliamentary elections.

D. Vydrin thinks, therefore, that Viktor Yanukovich will be removed from his party position following the upcoming elections to the Supreme Rada.

Expressing his assumptions the political scientist referred to allegations of his acquaintances in the German Parliament who claimed that the current leader of the Party of Regions does not fit within the context of the common European culture which is considered to be the source of the “common language of communication” for politicians from all other countries.

Fake election ballots are expected in two Ukrainian regions
TV Channel 5
March 19, 2006

According to operative data, fake election ballots printed on professional high-tech equipment are expected to appear in elections of city heads and deputies of local councils in two Ukrainian regions. This sensational allegation has been made by the Minister of Internal Affairs, Yuri Lutsenko. The Minister did not specify the regions having only noted that they both are economically attractive. He also said that he was aware of intentions of certain political forces to falsify the elections and use dirty technologies. The Ministry of Internal Affairs has announced it will award 300 thousand grivnas to those citizens who will help identify the underground print shops manufacturing illegal campaign materials and fake election ballots. Monetary prizes have also been promised to those who will help identify components of “black PR” or any other fraudulent activities in the course of elections.

Maidan named after Timoshenko
Vlasti.net
March 20, 2006

Forces that risk staying overboard the ruling coalition after the election into Ukraine’s Supreme Rada may venture a sharp aggravation of the situation and may try to organize ‘Maidan number two.’

The situation in Ukraine on the eve of the parliamentary election is commented on by Russian political analyst Stanislav Belkovsky in an interview to the correspondent of the Rosbalt agency Anna Steshenko.

Question: Now Ukraine talks about a possible disruption of the parliamentary election as a political technology prepared by the present authorities which realize that they will not win on March 26. Do you exclude such an eventuality?

Answer: I don’t think the parliamentary election will be disrupted in Ukraine. It will not be beneficial to the major participants of the election process, in the first place – to the bloc of Yulia Timoshenko (BYT). Though Timoshenko realizes that she already falls short of the electorate support that she had enjoyed after her resignation from the post of prime minister. Then, in September, she could really hope to get 25-30 per cent of the votes, which is not the case today. However this is not the main thing. I am 99 per cent sure that if Timoshenko fails to get into the new parliamentary coalition and BYT will be not be included into the new government, Timoshenko will again call upon people to go out into the streets!

As far as I know her headquarters already plans how they will bloc the streets where the presidential Secretariat and parliament are located; to disrupt its first session Timoshenko will undertake an attempt to engineer a new Maidan! Because she realizes that for her it is the last chance to stay a big star in Ukraine’s politics.

But I am not sure that such attempts, such an option of developments will be successful. The situation in Ukraine has generally changed. In this period Timoshenko failed to use the advantages that she had last year. In addition, she doesn’t have that many supporters among the Ukrainian elite of today. Today we see around her, in the first place, the former Kuchmists and social democrats (members of Ukraine’s Social-Democratic party, united). The latter viewed Timoshenko as a possible ‘cover’ alternative to Kuchma’s. Now they got proof that this ‘cover’ is not as reliable as they thought it was only half a year back.

You speak about the ‘second Maidan’ prepared by Timoshenko so confidently. How did you find our about that? How exactly is the preparation carried out?

This information became available to me from the sources in the election headquarters of Timoshenko’s party. I know the principles of the Ukrainian policy in which it is very difficult to conceal anything. As far as I know, the concept of the ‘second Maidan’ has yet to change. This is not the final model of the ‘second revolution.’ However as early as today it is believed that about 45 thousand people will go out into the streets of Kiev. About 15 thousand will block Bankovaya street where the President’s Secretariat is located, the same number will block parliament and the country cottage of president Yuschenko in Koncha-Zaspa.

The main idea is to accuse Yuschenko of betraying the ideals of the ‘orange’ revolution and Maidan after his decision to agree to a coalition with Yanukovich’s Party of Regions PoR). Timoshenko will call upon all the veterans of the revolution to put pressure on the president to make him refuse such coalition and disband the parliament. The latter will entail unscheduled parliamentary elections, some time during the following six months. But I am not sure this project will be successful.

Why?

First, because the situation in Ukraine changed radically during the last one year and a half. And today, unlike the situation of six months back, Timoshenko is not perceived by the people of Ukraine as the leader who can change the political system on the whole. She doesn’t have such a level of confidence for the people to really go out into the streets and remove the powers that be. Such things are not repeated often in the history of one country.

Moreover, the Ukrainians themselves have changed the attitude to Timoshenko and her entourage very much lately. Those who were earlier perceived as the ‘stars’ of Maidan, today are viewed as participants of commercial groups who pursue their own business interests and not the interests of the majority of people.

But still, is the option of dissolution of the new parliament possible, for such threats were repeatedly voiced by the pro-presidential Our Ukraine?

The new parliament will work. President Yuschenko will not disband it. His political philosophy will not permit him to take this step despite constant statements by the manager of Our Ukraine election headquarters Roman Bessmertny who threatens that the president may disband the new parliament. I think that Yuschenko may agree with Bessmertny in private conversations with the latter, but will not actually undertake this. It does not coincide with his political psychology and attitude to basic political issues.

Which do you think is the most realistic option of the coalition in Ukraine’s new parliament?

I think that such a coalition is possible between the Party of Regions of Victor Yanukovich, pro-ruling Our Ukraine as well as the socialists of Alexander Moroz.  It is these political forces that reflect the interests of the main mental stratas of the Ukrainian society to a maximum. I would like to underscore that the Socialist Party will have a ‘golden share,’ their votes, in particular, will be necessary to create a parliamentary coalition.  These three forces may come to a compromise for the sake of the strategic, stable development of the country. This compromise will be accepted by 90% of Ukraine’s population, by all the regions. It is important, for Ukraine today does not have mental integrity. Ukraine is not united, therefore such a coalition government will be the first step towards the formation of a real political unity and the nation as a whole.

Many experts do not exclude an option of a purely ‘blue,’ anti-orange coalition where the Party of Regions will be the nucleus. Is it possible?

Such an option is possible if the People’s party of Speaker Litvin as well as the communists join the Party of Regions. The Party of Regions may only hope that the communists will not demand ministerial portfolios in exchange for their joining such a coalition. However, in my opinion, Yanukovich’ party has two big problems. First, the Party of Regions is a big political business project. This project is managed by the people of business who do not want to assume 100 per cent of responsibility for what is going on in Ukraine. Therefore, the PoR activists realize even subconsciously that they need political partners who will assume a part of the responsibility for the country’s development.

The actual master of the Party of Regions Mr.Akhmetov (Donesk businessman Rinat Akhmetov) does not want his party to become marginalized, for he wants this force to be recognized in Europe and in the international environment. From this point of view the Party of Regions is more interested in the coalition with Our Ukraine than with the marginals such as the communists, Natalia Vitrenko and so on.

You speak about a probable coalition of the two radically different political giants. Which of them – Our Ukraine or the Party of Regions – will give more concessions on the way to creation of such a coalition?

These forces will have to give concessions to each other. The Party pf Regions will have to refuse the post of prime minister. That is, the prime minister will be from the ‘orange’ camp, the same Yuri Ekhanurov, for example. The Socialists will have the seat of the Supreme Rada’s Speaker. The optimal candidate from the socialists to this post is Alexander Moroz. In this case the Party of Regions will get not less than 40 per cent of the ministerial positions, but the most odious figures, such as Azarov, Yanukovich, Kluyev, Akhmetov will not get into the new government.

I think that Ukraine’s new government will be young enough, with new faces who will formally represent their respective political forces. Members of such a government will not have serious political contradictions as was the case with the previous generation of Ukraine’s politicians.

Will the number of concessions of the Party of Regions and Our Ukraine depend on who get the most of the votes in the election?

To a certain extent. All depends on the readiness for a compromise in general. This should be an ideological, strategic compromise. The Party of Regions will have to renounce the thesis that the Russian language should become the second state language in Ukraine. In their turn, Our Ukraine will have to refuse their thesis of joining NATO and quick admission into the European Union which is a matter of principle for them. Ukraine should give up the myths about NATO as well as about the phantom idea of creating the common economic space together with Byelorussia, Russia and Kazakhstan. The phantom project of the common economic space actually does not exist, except on a conceptual level.

Therefore, Our Ukraine and the Party of Regions make a mutual ideological compromise, it will be a great victory for the whole of Ukraine. Because only in this case will the political model be created which is acceptable for all of Ukraine, all the regions and various voters. It will be for the first time in Ukraine.

 Yushchenko is willing to make peace with Timoshenko and hopes that the orange team will “come to the round table of consent”
ICTV TV Channel
March 17, 2006

President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko replied in the positive to the question about whether he is willing to make peace with his one-time ally in the orange coalition the leader of the BYuT Yulia Timoshenko.

According to a report by UNIAN news agency, he said that during his live appearance in the studio of a Kharkiv-based television channel when responding to a question from local reporters and citizens.

“I want to reach consent between members of the orange team, however such consent is not about arithmetic,” Viktor Yushchenko said. “Clearly, mutual forgiveness should happen in the first place, mutual repentance of those people who just a year ago were standing on the Maidan, being leaders of different political parties, and were swearing, some even on the Bible, to make it a single team and a single team style. We have to come to this and I can promise you only one thing: I will try to do my best towards this policy,” he stressed.

According to the head of the state, he is aware that Ukraine needs such consolidation, since this is not the issue of interpersonal relationships. “Ukraine simply needs it and will benefit from it and politics after all is always the art of the possible,” the President said.

Viktor Yushchenko expressed his anticipation for “the parties coming to the round table of consent with the appropriate lessons drawn.”

Political leaders becoming more active in the last week before the elections
ICTV TV Channel
March 19, 2006

The “Kiev is a European Capital” Bloc is holding educational seminars in the country’s provinces. The Party of Regions is going to court over its love for women and the presents which judges see as bribery. And members of the Yulia Timoshenko Bloc do not rule out they will go into opposition to the President.

Several thousand supporters of the Party of Regions from seven regions of Ukraine rallied today in the city of Dnepropetrovsk. Members of the Party of Regions are campaigning against the decision by a district council, whereby members of the party were found to violate the law in congratulating women on the International Women’s Day, the 8th of March. The court has found it to be bribery of voters. Now the Party of Regions might be withdrawn from the elections to the regional council. The party will struggle for participation in the elections till the victorious end, since it sees the city of Dnepropetrovsk as one of its main hopes.

The leader of the BYuT Yulia Timoshenko did not rule out the possibility of her going into opposition to the President after the elections. However, she did not specify with whom she will be friends if it really happens. In the western city of Uzhgorod Timoshenko summed up the results of the election campaign. The main impression from the 300 meetings she had, having visited almost every maidan of Ukraine: politicians underestimate the wisdom of the people, while the opinion pollsters feed lies. Yulia Timoshenko does not believe administrative resources will be used in the elections, as she finds officials to be hapless. The Yulia Timoshenko Bloc will not join the orange coalition and will shortly cleanse its ranks of 170 candidates.

Choosing Kings With No Clothes
Ukrayinska Pravda
March 15, 2006

The last session of the Supreme Rada, which has commenced again, make it a necessity to review the old wisdom that “the one who forgets their past is doomed to relive it.”

Whilst observing the political dance of the modern Ukrainian society, one keeps on being surprised at the way the memory functions.

Why do people who have such gloomy historical inheritance keep on stepping on the same rakes and not learning by their mistakes? What is the force behind the hand and heart of the voter who keeps on ticking the same surnames which everyone is tired of again and again?

The sociological studies, which occur on our TV screens with the frequency of the weather forecasts, keep on emphasising the fact that it is so called rating parties that do end up in the Parliament. To be more to the point, these are the parties of the individuals who do have ratings.

The Ukrainian society brings up an image of an old cart with no horse. The cart is moving along the same bad road, and all the efforts made by those in power are directed at putting back a wheel that has dropped of just yet one more time, and the work of the opposition is to make a significant amount of noise about it.

People who arrogantly calling themselves the political elite, bring up some associations with the sloppy leadership which was a common feature of the soviet era collective farms. For those leaders the change of seasons has forever remained an unexpected event, to confront the consequences of which is a damned big effort.

What is a true mental state of these leaders of political parties who are posing for TV journalists as mentors for peasants who put the quality of the crop to the test or as a miner who routinely goes down a mine?

What kind of news are they capable of bringing to these people, who are laughing so happily in front of TV cameras? What could these individuals, who could only impress the society with the fact that it is not for the first time they are going to take seats as deputies in the Supreme Rada, offer to this society? If to look around and to make a sound judgement, the answer is nothing.

Many of them would attempt to justify their helplessness referring to the lack of experience for Ukraine has had so far as a sovereign country, the problems of growth and immaturity of the new Ukrainian society. But could this stand as a valid argument for people who do have some background knowledge of history?

The absence of experience of being an independent state is only a fact which relates to our past, by no means should it be regarded as a cause of our today’s misery. The memory of those ladies and gentlemen must be refreshed, they must be told once again that the nations inhabiting the geographical area from Colsky peninsular to the Crimea peninsular had never had a strike of luck with souverenity.

Until XX century neither Finland, nor Lithuanians nor Estonians were not in a possession of a state. Latvians had a bit more luck.

And so what? How are these countries doing at the moment? Ukrainian communists, both the dedicated ones and the ones who have change the colouring, should be reminded that Finland is one of the top 10 developed countries due to the fact that it has avoided being converted into a soviet state.

The bright people in the soviet Russia were aware of the fact that the problem is rather in the heads than in the closets.

In February 2004 during the interview with the Polish newspaper “Gazeta Vyborchaya” Victor Yushchenko told the reporters how he is dreaming about the Ukrainian people “living in prosperity and happiness, and the Ukrainian government is a people’s servant who does not put his own interests first”.

“The history teaches us that everything starts with having a dream like this one”, - the President to be made a summary.

However the same history has a lot of examples when the dreams remain the dreams.

The people who took to the streets with the expectation of the big changes coming their way would have been willing to forgive a lot to the orange leaders, if only the changes had commenced. But the people who came to power following the orange events were not capable of turning these events into a revolution. No quality change in the social relations had followed.

The society has woken to the fact that the swing of the fist does not correspond to the strength of the throw in few month after the inauguration. Leaving his political escort to manage, the President himself started a life of intensive foreign travel. There he lectured a la Manilov and with dignity accepted rounds of loud applause.

And the country, which was the object of his inspirational speeches, was living a different kind of life. Yulia Volodymyrivna, with a zeal so characteristic of her, was doing some repair work on that cart, which according to the President, was already moving towards Europe.

The words “pensions, subsidies, benefits”, these words were the mantras which were pronounced by the Prime Minister with a smile. According to Yulia Volodymyrivna, the majority of the Ukrainian population seemed simply incapacitated.

The rest of the society was not offered any radical surgery, even a quality therapy did not occur. The ordinary soviet fear of losing control over the process is still a shackles for the Ukrainian governors, those in power and in the opposition.

It is very unlikely that these people are capable of creating the systems which would serve as an organising basis for the society, and the society will forget the surnames of those who are ruling.

By the look of it, the new government did not have any other plan apart from redistribution. Redistribution of the posts, of the money flows and all the other ingredients which are the major attractions of the Ukrainian political cuisine.

However, even in the kitchen any cook can answer a simple question about the vital ingredients one needed for baking a pie. It is impossible to bake a pie without an idea. Our housewives were not in the possession of one.

Each team was cooking, so to say, leaving a lot to chance. That is why what happened has happened. The YCL fire run into a gas of clan relationships, under-carpet manipulations and all the rest of the staff, which is usually referred to as Byzantine.

The Ukrainian political Olympus was on fire.

The electorate which voted the orange has split because of the mutual accusations of the leaders in the orange camp. No one has noticed how the head of the forgotten “Proffessor” has re-emerged on the surface of the political life.

Victor Yanukovich, as a true trickster, took quickly took an advantage of the chaos which has materialised in the information field of Ukraine. And his growing ratings more and more remind of the Commandor’s steps.

Thus, Oleg Rybachuk was wrong when answering a question from the audience on air of “Radio Era” about the strong hand. He said that Ukrainians are not Russians but a European nation and the times of the strong hand and the managers-owners with the policies of strong hand are long gone.

The soviet inheritance turned out to be a truly big evil, so it would not be a good idea placing high hopes on Ukrainian mentality and the ability of the nation to self manage.

The major problem of our elite is that it is not only not able to see an individual, but also is scared of them. That is why it is not going to give green light to the self starters who run businesses, and are capable of providing for pensioners, build the roads and to organise the civilised life in the community.

That is why the Bill on Maecenas which would allow the humanitarian and scientific establishments, schools and universities not to queue to get financing from the budget, is never going to pass.

Such initiatives will never become laws. The main reason for this is because such laws lead to the creation of the thinking nation, not the population. The thinking nation will never make a choice which is being forced upon it by the manipulators. The thinking nation does not need an owner.

The trouble with Yushchenko as a president is that he either could not grasp this concepts, or he was unwilling to do so. He could not eradicate a clan slave from his own personality. Due to this factor his political force could lose to two authoritarian leaders.

If during the presidential elections Ukrainian electorate was choosing between the president and the manager-owner, today the choice is the equivalent of choosing naked kings.

Those who are for some reason referred to as elite, are no more than a colony of political polyps. The political polyps are dangerous because they are capable of cutting the oxygen from the brain of the Ukrainian society thus leading to its partial debilitation.

The last session of the Supreme Rada, which has commenced, is a last pre-election show of political adenoids, the major concern of its inner politics is going to be the problems of redistribution of flows, and on the outer side – seeking an answer to the question “Who to make friends with?”.

The society has to make its choice again in March. And only after this choice would become a historical reality it would be possible to answer the question: Does God love Ukraine?
Ukraine’s Yulia fights for revival
Chronicle Herald
March 19, 2006

KIEV, Ukraine — On the streets of Ukraine, she is known simply as Yulia.

To the rest of the world, Yulia Tymoshenko is the Orange Revolution firebrand whose determination and charisma helped bring about a peaceful, pro-democracy movement in this former Soviet republic.

Tymoshenko’s presence on Kiev’s Independence Square during the cold, snowy winter of 2004 rallied the masses to demand free and fair elections. Her role was arguably more important than the other prominent leader of the movement, and the man who would go on to be president, Viktor Yushchenko.

In the world of male-dominated, post-Soviet politics, Tymoshenko, 45, became a phenomenon in Ukraine. She is now one of the most recognized, and controversial, politicians in the 15 years since the fall of communism.

"It’s often difficult to deal with male politicians, it’s true," she said in a recent interview after campaigning outside of Kiev. "It’s not that I favour feminism, but too often male politicians let down the country."

Fifteen months after the bloodless revolution that ousted a Moscow-backed regime and vaulted Tymoshenko into power as prime minister, she is again fighting for her political future.

In September, Yushchenko fired Tymoshenko and her government in a rift over power and allegations of corruption against senior presidential aides. The dispute brought a halt to talk of economic and political reforms.

Tymoshenko described the day she was dismissed as one of the most disappointing in her life. She has pledged her comeback in the March 26 parliamentary elections.

But polls show both her new party and Yushchenko’s are trailing behind the Kremlin-favoured Party of Regions led by Viktor Yanukovych, whom Yushchenko beat in the contested 2004 elections.

Win or lose at home, it would be difficult to strip away the popularity she has achieved worldwide. Her glamorous good looks and peasant-like blond braids quickly became a symbol of Ukraine. Forbes magazine ranked her third on its 2005 survey of the world’s 100 most powerful women.

During her seven months in office, critics say Tymoshenko pursued populist policies to keep her ratings up by increasing pension and social assistance programs. The country’s once booming economy started to nosedive, and the president largely blamed Tymoshenko’s policies for its decline.

She accused him of being too soft on the country’s powerful business clans.

Tymoshenko’s critics say she is ruthless when it comes to getting things done her way, often putting personal interests ahead of those of her country’s.

"She is the strongest figure in Ukrainian politics today. She is a great lady — brave, smart and very charismatic," said Boris Nemtsov, a Russian opposition politician now working as an adviser to Yushchenko. "But she is a populist, which is a disaster for the economy. She wants to control the country, like (President Vladimir) Putin controls Russia."

Tymoshenko was born in the Russian-speaking, industrial eastern Ukrainian city of Dnipropetrovsk and raised by a single mother. When communism ended, Tymoshenko amassed a large fortune in Ukraine’s notoriously corrupt energy sector. She became one of the country’s wealthiest oligarchs, the shady group she now promises to drive out of politics.

In 1996, Tymoshenko was elected to parliament. She became deputy prime minister in charge of the country’s energy sector in 1999, under then prime minster Yushchenko. She quickly implemented anti-corruption reform programs and shed light on Ukraine’s shadow economies, including that of her old friends in then energy sector. By 2001, Tymoshenko says her reforms had angered many powerful members of the country’s corrupt, business elite. She was dismissed from her post and began a public crusade against the oligarchs and their political connections.

Her outspoken criticism of former president Leonid Kuchma in 2001 resulted in nearly six weeks in a Kiev jail on charges she claimed were trumped up to keep her silent.

She emerged even more resilient to fight corruption in Ukraine, she said.

Today, supporters of the Orange Revolution have not lost hope that Tymoshenko and Yushchenko can set aside their differences and unite again ahead of the March 26 vote.

Tymoshenko says she has not ruled out a coalition with her former partner.

Yushchenko To Actively Participate In Formation Of Parliamentary Coalition
Ukrainian News
March 18, 2006

President Viktor Yushchenko intends to actively participate in formation of a parliamentary coalition after the parliamentary elections.

Yushchenko announced this in an interview with the Silski Visti newspaper.

"The president will take the most active participation in its formation," Yushchenko said.
He considers it obvious that none of the participants in the parliamentary elections will win 51% of the seats in the parliament.

"It is already obvious that nobody will win 51% of the votes. It is clear that there will be a coalition," Yushchenko said.

He also said he was not ruling out the possibility of failure to create a coalition and expressed the view that this could be the best option.

"If a coalition cannot be formed because of ambitions, then it will possibly be better to of the country simply drifts for some time. It will probably be a lesser evil than an ill-considered policy," Yushchenko said.

He expressed the belief that the ideal option would be a coalition created by the Our Ukraine bloc, the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, the Pora-ROP bloc, the Kostenko and Pliusch bloc, and the Socialist Party.

"It is clear that an updated format of the Orange team would look ideal, and I hope that specifically such a coalition will be created after the elections," Yushchenko said.

He also expressed the view that the People's Bloc of Lytvyn should be involved in the creation of the coalition.

At the same time, Yushchenko said that he, as the president of Ukraine, should reckon with all influential political forces.

"As the president of Ukraine and not just a certain part of it, I should reckon will all political forces. It is another matter that principles that are unacceptable and are not understood by me dominate within the leadership of the Party of the regions. Those principles that I will never share," Yushchenko said.

According to him, the position of the Party of the Regions poses a threat to Ukraine. However, he stressed that ordinary supporters of the party do not share this position.

As Ukrainian News earlier reported, Yushchenko has made it clear that he is not a participant in the current election campaign and has distanced himself from the negotiations on creation of a coalition of democratic forces.

Three sources (and three building blocks) of the next administration
Zerkalo Nedeli
March 18-24, 2006

This year’s sluggish and dull parliamentary campaign is coming to an end. Yet after the elections, the political process will gain momentum and urgency. By and large, the electoral slogans of most political forces have nothing to do with their stance vis-a-vis the future parliamentary coalition. A wise voter should be aware that all political advertisements - printed and broadcast, positive and negative - are just colourful and glossy wrapping on otherwise indistinguishable party programmes. These days, people often ask us ZN political observers why we write so little on the parliamentary election campaign. The reason is there is nothing to write about.

Over the ten years of the Kuchma regime, ZN informed its readers in detail on the ends and means of those in power (i.e. today’s opposition). Likewise, for over a year now we have been telling our readers about the incumbent administration’s work, aims and objectives. For twelve years our correspondents and analysts have commented on the most topical issues of domestic politics and foreign policy, the national economy, the energy sector, agriculture, medicine and health care, science and education, culture, etc so as to enable our readers to have a complete and comprehensive picture of the political forces that are struggling today to overcome a 3% barrier and make it to parliament.

Given that there has been no radical change or rotation in the political elite formed over the last decade, a regular ZN reader will know pretty well what role such figures as, say, Medvedchuk and Baranivsky, Kinakh and Kliuyev, Lutsenko and Ivchenko, Boiko and Plachkov, Tomenko and Katerynchuk, Hubsky and Rudkovsky, Akhmetov and Poroshenko, Yeremeyev and Zvarych, Martyniuk and Seminozhenko have played in the county’s political and economic life and what could be expected of them. Sapientis sat: those who wanted to know are ready to make their choice.

However, while making our choice we should pay attention not only to the persons represented on party lists, but also to the party platforms and action plans. The latter, alas, were not readily available to the electorate. Ukrainian voters are just coming to realize the need for scrutinizing such platforms and judging political forces by them. Ukrainian politicians are coming to realize that voters are getting mature enough to want to scrutinize party platforms. In the meantime, the majority of the electorate still goes after bright wrappings and responds impressionistically to the charisma of party leaders, while politicians take advantage of it.

May we remind you that, pursuant to the latest constitutional amendments, the parliamentary coalition will take the lead in making decisions of national significance; key persons in that coalition will form the government and control it throughout the whole period while the coalition exists? At this juncture there is no telling what the coalition will look like, but several groups have started drafting action programmes for two types of coalition - orange and orange-blue. The main ideas underlying the action programmes will be defined, to a large extent, by the top three political forces - Regions of Ukraine, Our Ukraine and Yuliya Tymoshenko Block - and their leaders.

Unfortunately, leaders of the three contending forces refused to take part in a public debate. Not a single TV channel managed to lure Yanukovych, Yekhanurov and Tymoshenko, which we can only regret because it could be most enlightening for the voters to listen to a live discussion engaging the three politicians who lead their respective party lists. For one thing, they are all public opinion makers. For another, they all have experience of heading the Cabinet of Ministers and must have their vision of the country’s development. Moreover, in theory, all three have a chance to become prime minister again, with a wider scope of powers and more levers to implement their vision.

Frankly speaking, this is not an exhaustive list of candidates for the post-election premiership. It is not unlikely that a new name will surface as a compromise necessary for creating the parliamentary coalition. Nevertheless, the three leaders represent both their personal position and that of their teams. Therefore it is important for the voters to hear and compare their arguments, to see not only where they differ but also what they have in common.

That is why we decided to organize a debate in absentia among the leaders of top three most popular parties running for parliament this year. We asked the same questions of Yuriy Yekhanurov, Yuliya Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovych. We did not raise the issues of language, NATO, the Black Sea Fleet or Ukrainian Insurgency Army to avoid turning this debate into a contest of emotional slogans. We wanted to offer our readers an opportunity to evaluate these leaders’ approaches to reforms, their specific plans and proposed implementation steps.

We appreciate the three leaders’ consent to answer our questions. We thank them for their time and effort. One of them responded while still on the campaign trail, another while still keeping his hand on the national economy’s steering wheel, the third in bed with high fever. Some used the help of their consultants.

Upon weighing all pros and cons we decided against any concluding remarks to this material. We leave it to the readers to judge these politicians’ compatibility or irreconcilability, sincerity or craftiness, competence or inadequacy, the insightfulness or triviality of their views.

ZN: What are three top priority sectors of the economy which could guarantee Ukraine’s competitiveness and a decent role in the international division of labour?

Yuriy Yekhanurov:

- Briefly speaking, these are machine building for the energy sector, titanium and ferrous alloy production. I think we should also do research in a number of other world market segments, which could be conducive to expanding the list of break-through areas from three to seven or eight.

Yuliya Tymoshenko:

- I think the very term “international division of labour” is outdated in the sense that the left Аdidas shoe is made in Vietnam and the right one in the Dominican Republic. Every country should be economically self-sufficient. Of course, I do not suggest growing passion-fruit in Luhansk oblast but we should seek economic independence in all spheres. Ukraine’s main potential and resource for the outside world is human intellect and skills. The share of Ukrainians amongst the world’s best known hackers testifies that we have excellent brains. The next priority is agriculture. During WWII, Hitler exported Ukrainian black earth to Germany. What Ukrainian authorities have done to the national agriculture over the last fifteen years is a crime. Agriculture means as much to Ukraine as oil to Saudi Arabia. And we should start implementing the “Roads of Ukraine” project immediately, to make the best use of the country’s unique transit potentialities.

Viktor Yanukovych:

- Economy in a country like Ukraine is a complex and multifunctional system, affected by numerous factors, including the domestic market situation and the global economy transformations. Thus, speaking of the prospects for national economic development, one should keep in mind our general advancement strategy: what we are going to build, what economic development model we regard as the most suitable for Ukraine. In other words, we should answer the question, which the incumbent authorities shun for want of a clear action plan.

It is easy to single out three priority spheres, although the list could include four or even five of them.

We believe that the only chance for Ukraine to avoid ending up amongst the world market outsiders is to create step-by-step the so-called “general welfare” economy. This developmental stage precedes the post-industrial, knowledge economy. The US and Western European experience proves the efficiency of this way.

In order to attain this developmental goal a country should go through a transitional, “late industrial” stage, when it should produce technically advanced goods and make durable commodities available to all. That will lay the foundation for a real (rather than propagandistic, election-driven) wellbeing for all. The late industrial model will take the edge off the contrasts between the traditional industrial economy and the society formed in developed post-industrial countries.

Priority sectors of the economy will be identified at this transition stage. We are positive that the focus should be on processing industries based on high-tech production that will gradually replace the production with low and middle technological intensity. A powerful innovation infrastructure should be set up, first of all in the information sphere. The major objective at the late industrial stage is to produce technically advanced and science-intensive goods. Not only do I mean such sectors as rockets or aircraft building where Ukraine’s capacity is well-established. We expect to develop any modern production, including that of high-quality fast-moving consumer goods.

Our primary concern should be not even what to produce - the market will define and regulate it, but how to ensure competitiveness of goods of Ukrainian origin. Once Ukraine joins WTO, it will face fierce competition, both in the internal and international markets. Sorry to say, the current national leadership in its attempts to speed up Ukraine’s WTO accession does nothing to help domestic manufacturers prepare for this competition. Of course, it cannot be done overnight: a special governmental programme should be developed for technical re-equipment and reforming of the industries with good competitive capacity. The state should start supporting those industries today. According to the World Economic Forum data for 106 countries, Ukraine ranks amongst the bottom twenty in terms of competitiveness! But the administration does not seem worried in the least. Instead, we hear political election slogans stating that all is well with our economy.

I think the authorities should have informed the population what they do to enhance Ukraine’s competitiveness in the context of globalization, to foster technical and technological, research and scientific progress in the country, etc.

Our party’s strategy attaches great importance to this issue. The document shows that we strive to back up the development of fundamental (theoretical) and applied science. Science should become a springboard for revolutionary ideas and competitive technologies.

We are fully aware that “democracy” is not synonymous with “freedom”. In the absence of the rule of law in the country, too liberal a democracy cannot guarantee good living standards to its citizens. A famous political analyst and publicist Farhid Zakharia argues in his book “The Future of Freedom” that most “poor” democracies are countries where basic freedoms are not secured by the might of the state.

ZN: What three priority programmes do you intend to implement in the social and humanitarian spheres?

Yekhanurov:

- Reducing the cost of mortgage lending through the introduction of securitization mechanisms and active governmental support to mortgage refinancing; reforming the municipal economy through the attraction of private investment and breaking up the monopoly of the state-owned housing-maintenance offices; initiating legislation to introduce hourly labour payment.

Tymoshenko:

- The top priority is the revival of Ukrainian culture and spiritual life. It might sound cliched but it is the most pressing challenge of the day. I do not mean the construction of another museum or gallery, but rather the nation’s cultural and spiritual renaissance. I would view it as an extraordinary objective eclipsing all other development strategies or programmes.

Then we should restore a system of high-quality and affordable health care funded, albeit partially, by the government. Our people should not pay for bandage materials in hospitals: it is wrong and humiliating. People have the right to turn for medical treatment to hospitals and clinics even if they lack money. The third priority programme is providing high-quality educational services to all children, irrespective of their parents’ incomes. Rinat Akhmetov’s children and the children of any miner in Donbass should have equal educational opportunities. In line with the two above priorities, the salaries of teachers and doctors should be at least doubled in 2006; pensions should be raised by 50% gradually amounting to 80% of salaries. Scholarships for students should be at least UAH 426. Finally, we should finance the “Nation’s Revival” programme envisioning maternity allowance of UAH 8,500 for the first child, UAH 15 thousand for the second and UAH 25 thousand for the third one. I want Ukrainian population to be 52 million as it used to be.

Yanukovych:

- What social programmes can we talk about when there is no money in the budget? The party strategy contains our social and humanitarian policy proposals.

First of all, we should take care of those who have worked all their life and earned their right to decent old age. The Party of Regions is prepared to accelerate pension reform. We would stimulate the establishment of non-state pension funds that will supplement the existing system of old-age pensions and become an important source of investments in the domestic market. We have studied the best international practices in this sphere. Thus we are ready for an effective pension reform. Of course, we will need the law-makers’ support here, because a relevant legislative framework should be in place.

The Party of Regions is also ready to reform the Armed Forces. We regard the necessary transformations not only in the context of enhancing the country’s defence capacity but also from the perspective of improving the living standards of the military. We will guarantee social protection to the servicemen of which they are practically deprived today.

The third priority is the implementation of the state programme for supporting the middle class. It is a political issue but there are effective economic levers to address it, including lower taxes, protectionism with regard to SMEs. There is nothing new here. All incentive mechanisms have been invented and work well elsewhere in the world. The political will is required to introduce them in this country. We have the necessary will and commitment.

As for the humanitarian sphere… We have got plenty of plans, starting with a serious state support to education, large-scale investments into the next generation, in their knowledge, skills and health. Yet again, we cannot discuss it in any meaningful way until we ensure a sustainable functioning of our economy.

ZN: What three major changes should be made in the national taxation system?

Yekhanurov:

- Loading on the wage fund of enterprises, companies and organizations should be gradually reduced to UAH 0.25; VAT should be lowered to 15%; real estate tax should be introduced.

Tymoshenko:

- When I was Prime Minister, we made one, but major “change”: we collected taxes from those who never paid them. As a result, in 2005, some metallurgical and machine building plants paid 12-14 times as much in taxes as they did in the previous years. Mind you, we neither increased tax rates nor introduced any new taxes. We just improved collection. It allowed us to set off a huge budget deficit (UAH 32 billion) and augment budget revenues by 73%.

What should be done is cancellation of theVAT, which is a damaging, criminalized and corruption-fueling tax. VAT is the taxation system of Kuchma’s Ukraine.

Yanukovych:

- We regard the taxation reform as a cornerstone of Ukraine’s social and economic development programme. Without an easing of the tax burden on businesses and individual incomes it will be impossible to stimulate economic growth in the country, to achieve a sustainable increase in budget revenues, to create new jobs and so on. We understood it when I headed the government; we understand it now. I would like to remind you that my government reduced corporate profit tax from 30% to 25%. You should ask Tymoshenko and Yekhanurov why their cabinets did not make a similar step. We trimmed personal income tax from 40% to 13%. According to our estimations, the VAT should have decreased from 20% to 17% in 2005 and to 15% this year.

Therefore, my response to your question about three main changes in taxation that the Party of Regions is going to initiate is this: the total tax revenues should not exceed 25% of GDP. Today it is 30%. Put differently, we will continue what we initiated in 2003-2004 and realize the plans that we had to shelve because of the “orange” events.

ZN: In your opinion, what should the minimum pension and salary be in this country? What budget resources can be mobilized to raise current pensions and salaries accordingly?

Yekhanurov:

- I do not think it useful to discuss abstract numbers. People will always be unhappy with the level of pensions and salaries that is adequate and affordable for the state at a certain stage of its economic development. Ukrainians want pensions like in Poland; Poles envy Germans etc, etc, etc. We should revise the approach [to setting minimum pensions and salaries]. It is fundamentally wrong to formulate social policy proceeding from the amounts received as debt repayment. Social policy should, on the one hand, be a derivative of the country’s economic growth, and on the other - a driving force of this growth. The initial step in this direction is to de-shadow wages and salaries, first through persuasion or administrative sanctions, later - through tax incentives.

Tymoshenko:

- Minimum pensions and salaries should allow people to lead a life where they would not be treated as social outsiders or outcasts.

Minimum pensions and salaries should be supplemented with other social security mechanisms. There is enough money in the country, but the money is in the wring pockets. Over the six months of my government’s tenure, we raised pensions and salaries by 40%. Our numerous opponents tagged the budget that we proposed as a “populist” one. If the country benefits from what I do, I agree to be considered a populist. The poor and hungry will never build a free, democratic and wealthy country.

Yanukovych:

- The answer to this question is well-known: people should live a decent life. This is the only criterion against which minimum pension and salaries should be gauged. What matters is not raining salaries to employees of budget-funded institutions or pensions to retired people. What matters is to curb the inevitable inflation. What good does it make for a teacher or doctor to get a higher salary if process for basic goods and services sky-rocket on the next day? This happened last year, and people are well aware of it.

We need economic stability, otherwise salaries and pensions will always lag behind the inflation. Thus we need to return to the situation when GDP growth rates were high. Then there will be no problem finding resources for higher salaries and pensions.

ZN: Practically all political forces are dissatisfied with the Constitution, even though it has been amended. What are the three key amendments that your political force would like to make?

Yekhanurov:

Both Ukrainian and foreign experts point to the necessity of revising the norm that vests the Prosecutor General Office with supervisory functions and liquidating the norm of the so-called “imperative mandate” [which ties a representative elected as a member of a political party to a respective parliamentary faction; in case a member of parliament deserts it for another faction, he is to be stripped of his MP mandate].

Another problem is the integrity of the executive branch, which needs special attention from the lawmakers. The executive government, which is formed by both the President and the Parliament, can not work as one mechanism. There should be unified principles of staffing and it would be optimal to give this job to the President.

Tymoshenko:

My faction was the only political force to vote against this political reform. If the President and I had remained in one team, I’m sure we’d have denounced the constitutional reform. Today, unfortunately, the top leadership doesn’t have enough resources or influence to cancel it. Nevertheless, I still believe that this reform won’t work, because it’s clannish. It was designed by clans and for clans. But I am convinced that the new country must not live by the rules that were set by the previous president. Sooner or later we will have to write a new constitution, which will clearly distribute powers and competences. Besides, the Organic Law must a) stipulate the principles of complete separation of capital and authority; b) provide for all forms of authorities’ liability for their actions or inactions; 3) contain a separate clause on the parliamentary opposition, which would have a special status and would become a strong watchdog to control the government.

Yanukovych:

First of all, it is necessary to legislatively establish the principle of decentralization, which is the key component of the political reform. The Organic Law must provide real levers of public control over regional and local authorities. The citizens must know that power belongs to local communities, not someone up there in Kyiv, and that it’s possible to replace civil servants who don’t do their job well. Representatives of the central government in localities should only watch if local authorities abide by the Constitution. All this must be stipulated in the Organic Law.

Secondly, we insist on total independence of administrative regions in all spheres except for defense, national security, foreign policy, and some others. If someone is afraid of the term “federalism”, we may as well call it “division of powers between central and regional authorities”. We have already seen that it is possible to integrate Ukraine’s administrative regions which are entirely different historically and culturally. We will let them go their own way and develop the way their communities choose. And that’s the European way.

These steps are directly tied to our party’s initiative to grant Russian the status of the second state language in Ukraine. This issue is known very well, so I won’t dwell on it in detail. There is only one remark: those who say that this problem doesn’t exist and that it’s only raised before elections are totally wrong. If it didn’t exist in reality, nobody would even mention it. Politicians must be aware that whenever their slogans fail to produce the desired effect, they fall short of votes. The Party of Regions is not an exception.

ZN: What are the three main steps necessary to optimize relationships between the Center and the regions?

Yekhanurov:

It is necessary to start implementing the norms of the amended Constitution which expand the scope of competence of local self-governments. This requires new bills on local administrations and bodies of local self-government.

It is also necessary to fill the state policy for regions with new content. We need to draft a new program that would determine priorities in regional development. The first steps in this direction have been made: the central government has signed protocols of intent with the administrations of the Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions. As soon as all the details are adjusted, we will conclude agreements in which the regions will assume their obligations and the central government will undertake to solve their concrete problems. The early responses are positive, so we plan to expand the area of this experience.

I think your readers know very well that the present system of government is not effective and needs serious changes. So the third step is a comprehensive administrative and territorial reform.

Tymoshenko:

Firstly, staffing policy has to be rational and selective. Lenin said that cooks could manage the state, but in fact they must not.

Secondly, budgetary policy has to be optimized. The central government should fund exclusively the expenditures that are within its competence. The optimal proportion of distribution of the consolidated budget between the Center and the regions would be 50/50.

Thirdly, the central government should have effective legal instruments of prompt and adequate response to local authorities’ actions or inactions.

Yanukovych:

The administrative regions need to have maximum independence. We propose to replace the existing fiscal methods, which are repressive, with absolutely different ones: with methods based on responsibility, order, and strong motivations. We understand regional policy to be guaranteed independence for administrative regions, their ethno-cultural identity, and adequate labor remuneration at the level of local communities and regions. We propose to decentralize managerial functions. The administrative regions should draw their own rations. [don’t understand -J.] They should have the right to decide which communities and sectors of industry need priority investment. We propose to improve the existing budgetary relationships by introducing a system of compensatory transfers, establishing stabilization funds, encouraging investors through a simplified taxation system, and other measures.

I think three steps or even ten wouldn’t be enough. Actually, the number of steps doesn’t matter. What does matter is promptness. We have an action plan and we are only waiting for the outcome of the parliamentary elections.

ZN: The current relations with Russia are called “a cold economic war”. What are the three main steps that have to be taken to improve them?

Yekhanurov:

War or no war, our trade with Russia grew by 13.1 percent in 2005. Our exports increased by 22.9 percent and imports by 6.5 percent. Business has learned to overcome any political obstacles. That’s why politicians must learn to help businessmen, instead of using them to their ends.

Firstly, we need to clear the floor for dialog. The Yushchenko-Putin Commission should become a generator of ideas for cooperation and develop a cooperation strategy. In my view, the Ukraine-Russia Intergovernmental Commission is supposed to be a mechanism for cooperation, which should work through extensive business contacts at all levels.

Secondly, we need a real free trade area. It exists de jure but is actually paralyzed by hundreds of exclusions.

And thirdly, we must shift our energy relations from the political plane to the plane of a long-term economic strategy.

Tymoshenko:

Moscow was always strong where Kyiv was weak, and the Russians feel it. That’s why we need more than three steps. We need to move in this direction step by step and continuously. A strong, non-corrupt, and professional government in Kyiv is the strongest argument in any discussions that involve national interests.

Yanukovych:

The problem is known very well, so I’ll be brief. Firstly, we must stop placing the Russian vector of Ukraine’s foreign policy in opposition to the pro-Western one, because this contradicts our national interests. We wouldn’t have this clash of priorities if our foreign policy were set by the parliament and not a group of political leaders who pursue certain corporate interests. Unfortunately, this is still the case. What the top leadership calls diplomacy is just a policy pursued by one wing of the Ukrainian political elite. The opinion of the other wing is simply ignored. Can you imagine any developed European country where the foreign minister acts on behalf of one political force and his actions lead to negative political and economic results? Unfortunately, we have it in this country. But I assure you that after the elections we’ll do away with this practice. This is not a question of our party’s position with regard to Russia - it is known very well. The question is where this country’s course should be determined - in the parliament or in “party kitchens”. The kitchen where the pro-presidential forces are “cooking” our foreign policy is too small and we are in for hard times.

In this context, the three steps you ask about have to be aimed at changing the very principle of forming Ukraine’s foreign policy. The first step, as I’ve just said, involves decision-making in foreign policy. The second step should be aimed at restoring mutual trust in Russo-Ukrainian relations. It can only be restored if all political forces - not only the pro-presidential ones - take part in the negotiating process. The third step is: to develop a new doctrine of relations. The negotiations will be extremely difficult, but I am sure that they will be successful if they are led by the forces that want to uphold Ukraine’s national interests and not try to capitalize on Russia’s weakened geopolitical position in Eastern Europe.

ZN: Do you agree that Ukraine should move toward membership in the EU? Please give three reasons why.

Yekhanurov:

Yes, I do. Firstly, the postwar European model of development has proven to be the most effective, sustainable, democratic, and socially oriented. Besides, this model is not based on unification. Europe’s practical experience shows that differences can unite and mutually enrich nations and not disunite them.

Secondly, the example of the countries of the former Socialist camp shows that the pre-accession process is a powerful catalyst of reforms which are needed by these very countries, not the EU.

Thirdly, Ukraine is an inalienable part of Europe - geographically, historically, and culturally. Now it is time to complement this list with economic and political contents.

Tymoshenko:

The movement toward the EU is Ukraine’s strategy. It is not about reasons or prospective advantages. We are not entering Europe. We are returning to it. That’s why it would be more appropriate to consider three precautions rather than three motivating reasons. Number one, we have to protect our markets and producers. Number two, Ukraine’s geopolitical realities have to be considered and respected. Number three, there have to be compensatory mechanisms for Ukrainian citizens whose consumer solvency is still far lower than that of EU citizens.

Yanukovych:

Yes, of course, our country should strive to join the European community. Firstly, Ukraine is a European country. By joining the EU, it would return to the civilization from which it has been isolated due to the known historical circumstances.

Secondly, the process of European integration has always been aimed at strengthening stability and peace on the continent. Now tell me, is it possible to ensure stability and peace without a European country that has a population of nearly fifty million and borders on the European Union?

And thirdly, an economically strong and democratic Ukraine will never agree to the status of a neighbor, which actually means a tall fence between the “better” and the “worse” Europe.

But there are three things that we have to do: instead of knocking on a closed door, to realize that stability and peace in Europe are impossible as long as Kyiv and Moscow are at loggerheads, and to consolidate the Ukrainian nation around the idea of attaining high democratic and economic standards. As long as millions of residents of the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine are regarded and treated as auxiliary personnel for those who claim to be “Europeans”, the European door will remain closed to this country. All of us can see the impact of the orange leaders’ supercilious attitude. Millions of ordinary people feel an aversion to them because these political leaders ignore their opinion, mentality, and position. For example, these leaders presented them with a fait accompli: they said that there was no alternative to joining NATO, without even asking the people.

ZN: Obviously, the gas issue will top the Ukrainian agenda yet again after the elections. What solutions to it do you see, and what will you propose?

Yekhanurov:

We should speak of the gas balance. To this end Ukraine should, and will, have so-called social gas -gas supplied to the population at a low price. For this purpose we need about 30 billion cubic meters of gas. We will make up the missing amount by regulating licenses for the use of natural deposits and activating drilling in the Black Sea shelf.

We will gradually reduce gas consumption down to 62 billion cubic meters, and will start by cutting gas consumption by 10% this year. Over the five years of the transition period guaranteed by the government, all industrial enterprises aiming to continue their operations will need to implement energy-saving technologies.

Diversifying sources of the gas supply is the third way of solving the problem. We are actively working on it, yet it is too early to speak of any specific results. I will, when the job is done.

Tymoshenko:

This problem will become extremely urgent even sooner than we think, I am afraid; quite possibly on the morning of March 27. At least judging by the panicky memos which Mr Ivchenko regularly sends to the President, the situation in the gas industry is catastrophic. He proposes to overcome these crises by a general price increase of up to 400 hryvnias per thousand cubic meters for the population, and 600 hryvnias for state funded organizations. This is not good, to put it mildly.

We must urgently remove mafia-type organizations, such as RosUkrEnergo, from the domestic market and re-establish direct contacts with Turkmenistan, Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan at the state level. We must do away with the dilettantes and thieves in the industry and reestablish the legitimacy of the Russian-Ukrainian gas treaty until the gas issue is settled in the Stockholm court.

Yanukovych:

I have already answered this question, to some extent, when I spoke about Russian-Ukrainian relations. We must try to re-establish good-neighbor relations with the Russian Federation. Only then it will be possible to start negotiations on the revision of the previous gas agreements. I am sure that this is possible.

Yet the so-called gas problem was caused not only by mistakes of the current Ukrainian government in foreign policy. The Party of the Regions realizes that we must urgently change our approach to the energy security of the state. That is why we have developed an appropriate action plan as a part of our strategy for economic development of Ukraine.

The previous policy in the energy sector was based on the need to create a reliable and stable system of energy supplies in the state. To this end, all industries in the national fuel and energy sector were supported and developed. To this end Ukraine participated in international energy projects on a parity basis, balancing the national interests of the participant countries.

Such a policy ensured sustainable growth of the main industries of the national economy, and a regular supply for the population and for state-funded organizations with all types of fuel and electric energy at relatively low prices (due to the low income of most Ukrainians). We can talk about the high power needs of Ukrainian production as much as we like, yet we know what it is due, and that it is impossible to solve this problem only by talking about it.

We believe that modern, scientific, intensive technologies will ensure a high level of energy- and resource-saving in industrial and agricultural production.

Energy efficiency should become the major criterion in choosing technologies when enterprises are upgrading. As a result of implementing our strategy, Ukraine will reach a qualitatively new level in its development. To this end we must implement a whole system of anti-crisis measures.

First, it is necessary to regulate the situation in the gas industry, and to set up barriers to profiteering on the internal market and the outflow of capital; to take measures against the alienation of our gas transportation system and other elements of the oil and gas industry of Ukraine as a settlement of the debts to foreign banks and companies; to ensure transparency of pricing, and to set up effective state control over pricing and distribution of natural gas to Ukrainian consumers.

Second, we need to create the conditions for an increase in the level of incomes of the population and companies as well as for an inflow of investments into the fuel and energy sector.

It is necessary to free the fuel and energy sector from the burden of its old debts. They have impeded its development for many years. After all, a law which enables effective restructuring of debts, deduction of bad debts and gradual return by 2010 of significant costs into turnover, has been adopted.

All kinds of programs for construction and reconstruction of energy facilities, including hydro- and wind-energy, were mostly drafted before 2005. These programs can be reviewed, but the development processes can not be kept back - it is harmful for the economy!

The Party of the Regions started working on improving the heating supply system of Ukraine back in 2003 - 2004. Development of these systems of autonomous heating supply, along with communal heating supply systems, will enable us effectively to solve the heating problem in many cities and rural areas.

Personnel policy and management methods in the fuel and energy sector are now two urgent issues. In our view, large-scale substitution of leaders and professionals in key posts in the fuel and energy sector is inadmissible. Training of administrative personnel is a number one issue. In addition, prioritizing strategic tasks and international treaties must be ensured.

ZN: How exactly do you and your political party propose to solve the issue of diversifying energy sources for Ukraine?

Yekhanurov:

- The first thing is that we should use our own resources to the utmost. It is our strategic resource, no matter what one might say about the high costs and long time horizon for developing Ukrainian deposits. Secondly, Ukraine should start thinking seriously about energy sources that are alternatives to gas and oil, such as nuclear, hydro and non-traditional power. Thirdly, we should rid ourselves of unjustified energy losses, implement energy-saving technologies, and safeguard against schemes of energy- and energy-source theft. It does not take difficult political manoeuvres. It takes only political will, and our party has it.

Later on we should activate our work with the countries exporting energy sources, such as Russia, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Iran and the North African countries. In the long run, none of our partners should have a “controlling stake” in the supply of energy resources.

Tymoshenko:

- I don’t like the word “diversification”. I’d better speak about a new energy policy for Ukraine. We worked it out during my premiership. To pursue it, one should go not to Moscow to visit Mogilevich, but to Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan.

Yanukovych:

- The situation with the supply of gas requires revising plans for developing and restructuring the coal industry. Ukrainian coal supplies will last for hundreds of years. This reliable energy source, ours alone, could allow us to reduce our dependency on gas and oil imports. A bill on the key elements of energy safety for Ukraine, co-authored by the members of the Party of the Regions, outlines the major areas of development for the industry.

The state should create conditions for modernizing promising coal enterprises and constructing highly productive coal mines and ensuring a high level of safety in mining. Much attention should be paid to organizing the extraction and industrial use of the associated gas (methane) from coal mines. The Party of the Regions is interested in promoting the bill entitled ‘On gas (methane) from coal mines’, which has already passed its first reading.

To meet our needs in hydrocarbons, and to ease our dependency on their import, it is expedient to concentrate exploration works in the regions of the Azov and Black Sea shelf and the southern outskirts of Donbass. The state should create favorable conditions for capital inflow to major oil and natural gas deposits.

At the same time, we should develop our own system for processing oil, and increase the level of processing up to 85% and the quality of oil products up to international standards.

It is also essential to ensure Ukraine’s participation in joint natural gas and oil extraction projects in other countries in the Near and Middle East and in Northern and Central Africa.

Nevertheless, reestablishment of relations with Ukraine’s major strategic partners in the energy sector -Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan, is a major goal.

ZN: Do you believe that a closed nuclear loop and construction of new nuclear power plants is the way out for Ukraine?

Yekhanurov:

- We have to be honest with ourselves: currently Ukraine has to make a choice between two ways of providing for its growing needs in electric energy: either thermoelectric, or nuclear power plants. The first choice entails an immediate threat to our environment and to the health of Ukrainians, while the second choice entails a potential threat. That is why, first, we will create every element of the nuclear cycle except for enriching and processing used nuclear fuel; second, we will develop nuclear power engineering while ensuring its utmost safety.

Tymoshenko:

- Many countries in the world are currently reviewing their plans for energy development in favor of nuclear power, with high level of safety based on new technologies. For example, France has up to 80% of nuclear energy in their total energy balance.

I am deeply convinced that Ukraine should become a country with a closed nuclear cycle. This program can be implemented in ten years. Another thing is that governments of some other states do not want this. Nobody wants to have a strong Ukraine. We, however, should create safe nuclear reactors, but not mortuaries for the world’s nuclear waste.

Yanukovych:

- I don’t think that it is feasible. At the same time, it would be expedient to begin researching the residual resources of energy blocks #1 and #2 of the Rivno Nuclear Power Plant and other power plants, as well as to start preparatory work to extend their service life in line with the comprehensive program approved by the Cabinet of Ministers in 2004. It is important to start the construction of the 750 KV backbone energy transmission lines.

In general, we should pay special attention to issues of further developing nuclear energy in Ukraine.

ZN: President Viktor Yushchenko said that “the government recognizes the results of privatization in Ukraine and has no intention of reviewing them.” Do you agree with this point of view?

Yekhanurov:

- The correctness of the President’s position has been confirmed by life. An avalanche of re-privatization and a favorable investment climate are two incompatible things. I would only like to specify: we recognize results which are not objected to in court. Yet in any case, except for Nicopol Ferro-Alloy plant, a peaceful settlement will be the priority option for settling the case.

Tymoshenko:

- No, I do not agree. The President of Ukraine is not an emir or a sheikh. He must stick to the Constitution. If we are trying to become a constitutional state, all disputed issues concerning privatization must be settled in court, not at the President’s press conference.

Yanukovych:

- President Yushchenko has made many statements, yet what actually happened was often different from what he said. I think that now, investors will be very cautious about investing their money in Ukraine, and will not trust the representatives of the current government. Only political reform can improve the situation; it will change the distribution of governmental authority. Maybe when the government is set up not by a small group of politicians who are trying to remain in power, but by parliament, the situation will change.

ZN: Do you support the idea of the deputy’s immunity? If not, why? If yes, then should it be applicable to deputies at all levels, or only to deputies on local councils?

Yekhanurov:

- I strongly disagree with the immunity for deputies on local councils. All Ukrainians must have equal protection of the law.

As for the deputies to the Verkhovna Rada, their status has to be revised and made more civilized.

Tymoshenko:

- My answer is straightforward: there should be no immunity for deputies. Our faction has been pressing to abolish the law on complete immunity for deputies for six months. Unfortunately, the factions of Our Ukraine, the Party of the Regions and the Communists failed in the voting on this issue. Every candidate for the people’s deputy in Yulia Tymoshenko’s bloc has signed on to certain commitments, which include a required vote for the abolishing immunity for deputies on local councils and for amending the Constitution concerning the restriction of the immunity of the people’s deputies of Ukraine.

Yanukovych:

- At the current stage, when the government can use law enforcement officials to eliminate its political rivals, as was the case with many members of the Party of the Regions, I will support immunity for deputies, including immunity for deputies at the local level. When the level of democracy in Ukraine increases to a level when it will be impossible to resort to such measures, I will be the first to support the removal of the immunity.

ZN: Could you name, please, parties and blocs with whom your party will never form a coalition in future parliament?

Yekhanurov:

- We will form a coalition with those political forces who convince us that their vision of the future of Ukraine is in accord with ours. Shared understanding of the need for a dynamic market economy with priority for developing modern technologies, the wish to reform the political system and the structure of state administration will be the basis for such a coalition.

Naturally, we will not be able to form a coalition with those political forces who will not make it to the parliament.

Tymoshenko:

- The party of regions of Yanukovych.

Yanukovych:

- It is premature to speak about this before the announcement of the election results. Let’s see which political forces make it to parliament, and what their alignment will be. However, I can tell you that a parliamentary majority should not be formed as a result of someone’s ambitions, but be based on a common cause, which parliament should serve. It is the creation of alegislative framework, ensuring social economic progress that is needed. All the rest should be solved at the negotiating table.

ZN: What three steps should be made at once to overcome the split in Ukrainian society? Do you intend to solve this problem?

Yekhanurov:

- “Uniting the nation” is item number five in our long term strategy for the development of Ukraine, which I presented first to the students of the Kyiv Mohila Academy. It is obvious for me as an economist that the unification should be encouraged through policies aimed at increasing contacts between residents of the different regions of the country. First of all, we should get to know each other better. This will help us to part of with our false fears and imposed stereotypes.

To this end, we propose a system of measures aimed at the development of domestic tourism (privileged tickets for specific routes, development of infrastructure, attracting discount airlines to the market, etc.). At the same time, it is necessary actively to develop student exchange programs and to increase the migration mobility of the workforce.

Tymoshenko:

- There is no split in society. There is a split among politicians, in high political life. To reach unity for the nation, we do not need to appeal to the Maidan, to speculate on the status of the Russian language or NATO. It is necessary to concentrate on those social problems which are common for people residing in Lviv, Donetsk, Cherkasy or Odesa.

Yanukovych:

- First, major political forces should stop confronting each other. Now there is an actual ideological war, chiefly against those who are in the opposition. The Orange realize the inevitability of their defeat in the forthcoming parliamentary elections and are reacting painfully. They forget that by labeling us, they are offending millions of Ukrainians who will vote for the Party of the Regions on March 26. If this state of things remains, there will never be civil accord in Ukraine.

Nevertheless, after coming to power, we will try in the shortest possible time to fill up the trenches that were dug up not by us. The most effective way is to increase the standard of living for people, to improve their well-being and to develop democracy. When life is good, there is no wish to fight, and there are no serious reasons for that except for the wish of certain politicians.

ZN: Would you name, please, three major steps aimed at reducing the level of corruption in the state?

Yekhanurov:

- Ukraine needs a systematic anti-corruption program based on amnesty for capital and bringing the economy out of the shadow. We are ready for judicial reform. The government is already working on increasing the legal incomes of our citizens and on cashless money turnover.

Tymoshenko:

- The first step is on the path to Petro Poroshenko, the second - to Tretiakov, the third is to the rest of the “dear friends”. Corruption in modern Ukraine is a not an isolated problem. It is the method of running the state. To eliminate corruption, nothing is needed, except for political will and the wish to do it.

Yanukovych:

First, we have to remove the reasons for corruption. A civil servant with small salary is more exposed to the temptation to use his/her job status to get illegal money than his colleague who receives a worthy salary. At the same time, his influence should be very limited by reducing bloated bureaucracy to a minimum. We don’t need to produce various populist programs like “Stop smuggling”, but we need to eliminate the economic reasons for this phenomenon.

Naturally, this is not a one-day job. That is why the Party of the Regions proposes the following measures: to create a black list of companies suspected of smuggling; to switch to an absolutely transparent system of state orders; and to publish information about salaries and other incomes of all members of the government, judges, deputies, as well as the information about their business ties.

ZN: The issue of amnesty for shadow capital has been discussed in the government and by the people for quite a while. Do you support such an amnesty, and if so, on which conditions?

Yekhanurov:

- All capital of non-criminal origin should work. There is one condition - the return of capital to Ukraine and its investment in the official sector and into creation of new work places.

Tymoshenko:

- We recognize the sacred right of property, but we never recognized the secrecy of the stolen. This statement also applies to capital. I support the amnesty of capital earned by the owner of a hairdressing salon, but I strongly object to the amnesty of private capital, which used to be capital of, say, Naftogas of Ukraine. Everything that was earned by hard work should be amnestied. However, all disputable issues, as for example re-privatization, should be settled in court. Otherwise we will amnesty thieves.

Yanukovych:

- Yes, I support this idea. It removes many problems, although it will not be easy to convince the people that such amnesty is in accord with the principles of social justice.

Borys Tarasyuk: New Ukrainian power fulfills promises of Maydan
Press service of "Our Ukraine" Electoral Bloc
March 19, 2006

“Today we can affirm that the new Ukrainian power puts into practice the obligations taken on Maydan – the Minister of Foreign affairs, number three in the list of the Our Ukraine Bloc B. Tarasyuk said. – Freedom of speech is an axiom nobody can doubt. Transparence of power is reality. The Ukrainian President communicates with Ukrainian people not from TV screen but standing before them on Maydan. Social programmes are implemented step-by-step. Pensioners, teachers, doctors, young mothers feel it”

Yuri Yekhanurov: The Party of Regions is intimidating the electorate
Press service of "Our Ukraine" Electoral Bloc
March 20, 2006

“The Party of Regions is intimidating the electorate demanding to vote for it – the Ukrainian PM, number one in the list Yuri Yekhanurov said on Sunday in the air of NTN channel. – They simple intimidate people, visiting factories and saying: “If you don’t vote [for us], we will show you. We will do this, we will do that”. Mr. Yekhanurov set an example with a factory in Zhytomyr. “Kamyanodribskyi faïence factory. People were gathered and intimidated yesterday. They said the factory would be closed” – he said.

Concerning co-operation with Yulia Tymoshenko in one government, Mr. Yekahnurov said: “I wish people understood her economic views. As a professional economist I hardly work with people without any view”.

“The Youth of Maidan” encourages Timoshenko to refrain from clearing the path for Yanukovich
Press Service of “Our Ukraine” Electoral Bloc
March 17, 2006

Members of the “Youth of Maidan” coalition have adopted an address on behalf of democratic youth organizations to the BYuT leader, Yulia Timoshenko.

“For us you have always been and still are one of the leaders of the orange revolution”, - the address states. – It is unfortunate, therefore, that you persevere in your attempts to win the office of the Ukrainian Prime Minister following the parliamentary elections. They jeopardize the creation of an anti-oligarchic coalition that must be created to consolidate all the Maidan forces against the bandit-oligarchic revenge. Who benefits from you current position? Viktor Yanukovich does. If the Maidan coalition fails the probability that this odious figure may return equals 100%. Do not you see that you are clearing the path to the power for Viktor Yanukovich?”

The address contains two demands for Timoshenko. “First, you ought to give up your attempts to win the office of the Prime Minister of Ukraine as a prerequisite of your participation in the Maidan coalition. What matters today is not positions and offices but the destiny of Ukraine and its people. And second, you must exclude from the BYuT party list the names of 20 oligarchs-Kuchmists who, pursuing their oligarchic interests, undermine the creation of the orange coalition and discredit the “Batkivschina” party”, - states the address.

Timoshenko knows for whom the “disappointed” will vote
Press Office of the Yulia Timoshenko Bloc
March 19, 2006

Responding to the question about the fortune of the disappointed citizens of Ukraine who account for 20 to 25 percent of the voters and are still undecided on whom to vote for, Yulia Timoshenko expressed confidence that they all will cast their votes for her bloc.

“Indeed, significant portion of the people is frustrated with what has been going on in the Ukrainian politics over the past year. And until the last moment, when poll findings were still allowed to be published, they stayed either undecided or were going to vote against all,” she admitted. “However, upon coming to the polling stations they will vote for our bloc.”

Timoshenko explained this confidence by the fact that such people “do not have any choice.”

“The fact is that there are complaints against both Yekhanurov, who managed to sign many things in his tenure as Prime Minister, and the Socialists, and other political forces.”

Previous Ukrainian Election Updates:

• 15 March, 2006
• 2 March, 2006
• 13 February, 2006
• 6 February, 2006
• 31 January, 2006
• 30 January, 2006
• 27 January, 2006
• 24 January, 2006
• 22 January, 2006
• 19 January, 2006